851
FXUS64 KOHX 060536
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms in northern AL have weakened as they
continue northward into the mid state, but still pose a severe
threat for northern AL. Some gusty winds remain possible with the
showers and storms moving into the southwest zones, but CAMs
continue to weaken the activity as the evening goes on. But, will
continue to monitor for any strengthening, or, any additional
development with the approaching cold front from the northwest.
Made some minor edits to the near term forecast to reflect latest
guidance. No other changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The morning sounding from OHX is rather underwhelming. There is
some instability, but not a great deal. The surface-based CAPE is
just 333 J/kg, with a Lifted Index of -2, and the 700-500 mb lapse
rate is a measly 5.2 C/km. The column is nearly saturated all the
way up, and without any sort of dry layer aloft, we just aren`t
getting steep enough lapse rates to produce any meaningful
instability. The 0-3 km helicity is 136, but this is due mostly to
speed shear. There is very little directional shear present. The
Precipitable Water is a robust 1.77", which gives us a PWAT+ value
of 148 (observed PWAT is 148% of the daily mean value), and puts
us well above the 90th percentile for June 5. Anyway, once this
initial line of showers passes through Middle Tennessee, the HRRR
shows very little activity until later tonight with the passage of
the actual surface boundary. After that, nothing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will keep us mostly sunny and less humid through
Friday. What looked to be a sunny weekend not so long ago is now
looking like a rainy one, especially Sunday. On Saturday, a weak
shortwave will bring some additional cloudiness with low rain
chances to Middle Tennessee. And on Sunday, an east-west oriented
surface boundary will sag southward through the mid state and
bring even better rain chances. Fortunately, QPF values on
Saturday and Sunday are very low. In other words, these will be
nuisance showers rather than washouts. As a result of tonight`s
frontal passage, temperatures will cool off several degrees
beginning Thursday night and Friday, with relatively cool weather
lasting at least until the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Radar trends indicate showers continue to push eastward with
minimal impact at TAF sites during the overnight hours. Might see
a shower at SRB and CSV, but will have to watch for development
approaching CKV, BNA, and MQY before winds shift to the west.
After 12Z with winds shifting to the west, expect fairly clear
skies which may allow for wind gusts to around 15kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  62  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    86  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     81  55  76  53 /  50   0   0   0
Columbia       88  60  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     83  57  77  55 /  30   0   0   0
Jamestown      81  55  77  54 /  40   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   87  60  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   88  60  83  57 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        86  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Barnwell
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....05