909
FXUS64 KOHX 241128
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
628 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The radar is quiet tonight with no returns and just some patches
of fog across the area. A stray shower is possible through the
rest of the overnight period, but the better shower and storm
chances will come late morning through the afternoon once again.
Like the past couple of days, instability will be plentiful with
mean HREF SBCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. The bulk shear
values are a little lower today with mean values in the 20-25 kt
range instead of the 25-30 kt range that we`ve seen the past two
days. With all that said, a couple storms could reach severe
limits with damaging winds as the main threat. Some hail is
possible but it will likely remain subsevere size. With the
amount of rainfall the area has seen over the last week and PWAT
values around the 90th percentile, there is a threat for some
flash flooding with the swaths of heaviest rainfall. The storm
activity is expected to greatly decrease after sunset. More
showers and storms will be possible prior to dawn and Saturday
morning. If this occurs, the afternoon potential for storms will
be lower. Not all of the models agree to this thinking and if
storms hold off until the afternoon, a couple severe storms will
be possible once again. Shear values will be a little lower than
today with bulk shear values around 20 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The most favorable setup for a widespread severe event continues
to look like Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening. A shortwave will
eject out of the central plains with lee cyclogenesis occuring
late Saturday. The surface low will lift northeast toward the
Great Lakes region dragging a cold front with it. Overall wind
profiles will become longer on Sunday with bulk shear values
increasing to 40-50 kts. In addition, the low level jet will
increase Sunday afternoon/evening to 40-45 kts. Steep mid level
lapse rates of 7.5C+ will work into the area as well. The exact
storm evolution still looks a bit uncertain, but there should be
activity ahead of the front. In addition, storm development ahead
of the frontal activity is possible. A combination of supercells,
and line segments are within the realm of possibility. All modes
of severe weather (damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes)
look possible as well as another flash flooding threat. The
showers and storms will linger through Sunday night with rain
chances decreasing Monday morning. Overall, Memorial Day looks
pretty dry especially during the afternoon. Less humid air will be
working into the area during the afternoon leading to a pleasant
Memorial Day evening.

Large scale troughing will be in place through midweek with
northwesterly low level flow. This will translate to more pleasant
weather with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and nighttime
temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s. The trough will move
east of our area by Friday with upper level ridging returning so
expect a warmup as we get to Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas of patchy fog will continue burning off as the sun rises.
VFR conditions will continue for a short period of time before a
cluster of thunderstorms starts moving in from the southwest.
Tempo groups are in at CKV, BNA, and MQY for best timing of
impacts. Storms will temporarily reduce visibility due to heavy
rain and will likely produce strong gusty winds during impact.

It`s a mixed bag for the weather overnight. There`s some models
hinting at another round of storms moving in from the north
overnight, while others show Middle Tennessee clear of convection
after 06Z. For now, leaving RA or TS mention out of the taf after
00Z due to low confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  67  88  69 /  70  60  40  20
Clarksville    81  67  84  68 /  60  60  30  20
Crossville     79  61  82  63 /  70  50  40  20
Columbia       81  66  86  67 /  80  60  40  20
Cookeville     79  63  82  65 /  70  60  50  20
Jamestown      79  62  82  63 /  50  50  40  20
Lawrenceburg   81  65  85  68 /  70  60  50  20
Murfreesboro   83  65  86  66 /  70  60  40  20
Waverly        81  65  84  68 /  70  60  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Baggett