Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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270 FXUS64 KOHX 041734 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A long wave trough is setting up over the Central US with the trough axis over North Dakota. This will push a few short waves over us today and will bring periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The first round of thunderstorms is making it`s way through the area. Overall it has been mainly showers but we are starting to see a few more thunderstorms pop up. This trend Will continue as it pushes east. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop behind that line during the afternoon. Then it looks like we will get a break for a time in the evening before more scattered activity pushes in overnight. Meso-Analysis shows 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE over the area and that will remain in place into the evening. Lapse rates are not great and 0-6 km shear is on the low side, overall the threat for strong storms is low but still can`t rule out an isolated storm or two with gusty winds and some hail. With PWATs above 1.70" heavy rain and possibly some flash flooding will be the main concern with any convection. The upper level trough will push east into the Great Lakes on Wednesday pushing a cold front into our region. We`ll see scattered activity in the morning as higher moisture advects into the area. CAMs are not overly excited with the forcing with the front but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of it for the afternoon and early evening. We do see an increase in 0-6 km shear pushing above 20 knots but lapse rates remain poor and soundings are on the saturated side. This will keep strong to severe thunderstorm chances low but similar to today, can`t rule out isolated gusty winds or some hail with any stronger cells. PWATs will remain very high above 1.70" keeping the heavy rain and possible flash flooding the main concern with convection. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing Wednesday night as the front works east through the area. Drier air will build in throughout the day on Thursday but it will remain warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Then we will see some great weather late week into the weekend as troughing sets up over the Northeast and strong ridging builds over the West. That will bring comfortable dew points, dry weather, and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dew points come up just a bit Sunday into next week and we start to see some instability return to the area. There won`t be much in the way of forcing but maybe a few pop up afternoon thunderstorms will be possible. Highs will remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Ongoing scattered showers continue to affect Middle Tennessee as we head into the afternoon. Also intermittent MVFR ceilings will persist the next several hours as an upper trough passes over the mid state. Drier air will likely work its way into the region by late afternoon, with much lower rain chances this evening and overnight. But we can expect more showers and MVFR ceilings to develop early Wednesday as the primary surface boundary and upper trough edge closer to the area. Best chance of storms will probably hold off until tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 85 70 88 / 70 90 30 10 Clarksville 70 83 66 86 / 70 90 20 0 Crossville 64 79 64 81 / 50 80 70 20 Columbia 69 84 67 88 / 60 80 40 10 Cookeville 67 81 67 82 / 60 90 60 10 Jamestown 65 80 65 81 / 60 90 70 10 Lawrenceburg 69 83 67 86 / 60 80 50 10 Murfreesboro 68 85 67 88 / 70 90 40 10 Waverly 69 83 66 86 / 70 90 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Rose