052
FXUS64 KOHX 031722
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Through daybreak, quiet conditions will continue with temperatures
holding the 60s. Areas of fog are likely for the morning commute,
especially by lakes and rivers and along the Cumberland Plateau.
For the daytime, it will be a warm and humid day. An upper level
level ridge and southerly low level flow will bring above normal
temps pushing near 90 in some areas. Our standard model blend
shows almost completely rain-free conditions, but operational
models show an approaching impulse and the HREF shows isolated to
scattered storms popping up this afternoon, especially west of
I-65. So, 20-30 pops have been included for most areas.

A series of impulses will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. Deep moisture and
instability will increase by Tuesday afternoon. Surface based cape
values will climb to 2000-3000 J/kg as precipitable water climbs
near 2 inches, so a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds
and very heavy downpours should be expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Conditions will be very warm and muggy Monday night
through Tuesday, but the added storm coverage and cloud cover may
hold Tuesday`s temps down slightly compared to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase further going into
Wednesday as a more significant shortwave trough brings a cold
front toward the area. Wednesday afternoon and evening will bring
the greatest thunderstorm chances for this forecast period and the
greatest risk for a couple of severe storms. Surface cape values
will climb over 3000 J/kg with adequate deep layer shear for some
organized storms. Gusty winds are likely with the stronger storms
and localized flash flooding will be possible as the atmosphere
remains loaded up with moisture.

A secondary cold front is expected Thursday with some additional
scattered showers and storms. That front will be followed by a
shot of cooler and drier air that will last through the weekend.
The weekend may not be completely rain-free as models show a
couple of impulses circulating around the developing eastern
trough. Very low confidence with timing and placement of these
weak impulses, so extended forecast pops are limited mostly
around 20 percent. Best news for weekend outdoor events is trend
toward slightly below normal temps and pleasant humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Surface ridge has slid off to the east, so that is allowing for
some return southerly flow and greater low-level moisture to
filter in to the mid state. We may see some isolated cells affect
areas near the Tennessee River by 00Z today, which would impact
primarily the CKV terminal, but POPs are very low so we`ve left
out any mention of convection until tomorrow. A developing
shortwave to our west is likely to start producing more active
weather after 12Z, which we`ll handle with VCTS/CB remarks for
the time being. Until then, look for VFR wx across Middle
Tennessee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  84  71  83 /  20  80  70  90
Clarksville    67  82  69  81 /  30  80  70  90
Crossville     62  78  64  78 /  10  80  70  90
Columbia       67  83  69  83 /  30  80  70  90
Cookeville     66  81  66  79 /  10  80  70  90
Jamestown      62  80  64  79 /  10  80  70  90
Lawrenceburg   67  82  69  83 /  20  90  70  90
Murfreesboro   67  84  68  84 /  20  90  70  90
Waverly        67  82  68  81 /  30  80  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose