255
FXUS64 KOHX 260537
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

We will get to enjoy quiet weather this evening and that will
continue into the overnight. With dew points above 70 across much
of the area it will feel humid tho.

***Tomorrow is still looking like an active severe weather day and
 you will need to be weather aware and have a plan and place to
 take shelter if bad weather hits your location.***

Thunderstorms over NE, KS, and OK will push east overnight. We
should see the southern part of this line weaken as it pushes
east. That will keep much of our area dry for the morning but
north of I-40 could get some activity after 8 AM. Soundings in
the morning show a strong CAP keeping convection elevated. This
will overall limit the severe threat with this round but still
could see an isolated strong cell that could produce large hail
or some gusty winds. This round should push out of the area by the
late morning.

The atmosphere will rapidly destabilize in the afternoon with
bulk shear above 50 knots. 0-1 km shear will be increasing as the
afternoon goes on and will push above 20 knots by 7 pm and
continuing to increase in the evening. We will also see large
amounts of CAPE in the hail growth zone especially in the
afternoon and early evening. This means that all modes of severe
weather are possible tomorrow. The greatest tornado risk looks to
come between 5 PM to midnight or so as the low level jet
increasing and the CAP is overall weak.

Once the morning round of storms pushes out its unclear how much
development we will see in the afternoon and early evening. There
won`t be large forcing but old outflow boundaries could kick
things off. If anything goes up in the afternoon and evening it
becoming severe seems likely. Confidence in thunderstorms will
increase in the evening as a cold front approaches the area. This
line of thunderstorms will move in after 10 PM and will push east
through the overnight. Wind in going to be the primary threat with
the line of thunderstorms but low level shear will still be
sufficient for tornadoes and some large hail will also be
possible. PWATs will be extremely high tomorrow pushing above
1.50" and heavy rain will also be a concern with any
thunderstorms. Storm motion does look to be somewhat quick which
will help but flooding will still be possible tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Memorial Day)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Showers and thunderstorms experienced during the early morning
hours are now long gone. Some light radar returns noted across
Cumberland Plateau Region as noontime hour approaches. Can not
totally rule out the possibility of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon, especially if a weak embedded
shortwave moves across our area, becomes a little more enhanced
as it pushes into eastern portions of our area late this
afternoon as some of the latest CAMs suggest, but overall,
generally dry conditions should prevail through afternoon hours
today with highs a few degrees above seasonal normal values. Look
for any shower or thunderstorm chances to mainly be confined to
Cumberland Plateau Region tonight as a shortwave approaches. Lows
tonight will be quite seasonably mild spanning the 60s.

Quandaries abound when it comes to shower and thunderstorm
chances late tonight through the day on Sunday. How convection
develops to our west today and possibly pushes eastward tonight
will be one factor to consider. Some CAMs and some of the more
traditional models have showers and thunderstorms moving west to
east across our area late tonight through at least the morning
hours on Sunday. Some models keep the brunt of convection to our
north. What ever turns out to be, there is certainly potential for
some of that convection to be strong to severe, with strong to
damaging winds main concern, but all hazardous modes will be
possible, including brief heavy rainfall. But again, there is
a chance mid state will not see much if any showers or
thunderstorms as day on Sunday progresses. Temperatures will
be quite seasonably warm with highs as warm as upper 80s to lower
90s, low to mid 80s for locations just west of and across
Cumberland Plateau Region.

While quandaries abound as day on Sunday progresses, little
disagreement with models on how Sunday night progresses, with
the best potential of strong to severe thunderstorms, damaging
winds continuing to be main concern, but certainly can not rule
out all hazard modes,as a potential southeastward propagating
convective system moves out of the central MS, western Ohio River
Valley Region into our area as the evening through at least the
early overnight hours progress. MUCAPE values could approach 3,000
J/KG, mid level lapse rates around 7.5C/km , effective bulk shear
values approaching 50kt, SRH sfc to 3 km values as high as
approaching 450 m2/s2, PW approaching 1.8 inches, along with
potentially significant right turning hodographs. Certainly
looks like some heavy rainfall could occur at times too,
especially during the overnight hours across locations east of
I-65 Corridor, especially Upper Cumberland Region. Lows Sunday
night will mainly range mid to upper 60s.

A surface front will eventually push through our area as Memorial
Day progresses, with potential of at least some strong convection
across eastern portions of our area through remainder of morning
hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances will decrease from the west
as the day progresses. Highs on Memorial Day will cool down
somewhat, but still be seasonably warm in low to mid 80s, upper
70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Dry conditions will finally prevail by Monday night with a dry
surface cold front dropping from the north as Tuesday progresses
with broad surface high pressure influences prevailing. Along
with broad upper level troughing across most of eastern CONUS
providing northwesterly flow across our neck of the woods through
at least Thursday, a progression to cooler temperatures will
commence beginning on Monday night with lows by Wednesday and
Thursday Nights spanning the 50s with highs on Thursday only in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. A
warmup will begin on Friday into first part of next weekend with
temperatures once again several degrees above seasonal normal
values as upper level ridging influences move across our area.
As surface and upper level ridging influences begin to shift
eastward, a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern
will develop supporting increased moisture advection across our
area that could result in shower and thunderstorm chances
returning to mid state region as Friday night into Saturday
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Complicated forecast over the next 24-36 hours. Starting with
tonight, high clouds are building in from the west. Most of the
overnight period should be dry with calm winds and areas of
patchy fog.

Tempos are in at each site for convection expected to push through
the area later this morning near 12Z. For the afternoon period,
models do not have a good handle on if there will be thunderstorm
development or not. If there is, it will be scattered in nature
and quite impactful with all modes of severe weather possible.

The main line of storms is forecast to enter into Middle TN near
3-4Z tomorrow night. Similarly, all modes of severe weather will
be possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  71  86  64 /  60  90  20   0
Clarksville    88  70  82  61 /  70  80  10   0
Crossville     82  64  79  56 /  60  90  60  10
Columbia       90  68  85  61 /  40  90  20   0
Cookeville     84  66  80  59 /  60  90  60  10
Jamestown      82  65  79  57 /  70  80  60  10
Lawrenceburg   88  68  84  61 /  40  80  30   0
Murfreesboro   89  68  85  60 /  50  90  30   0
Waverly        90  68  83  61 /  50  80  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Baggett