471
FXUS64 KOHX 221735
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1235 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A few showers and storms were moving across far northern portions
of Middle TN. More storms were firing up back across West TN and
AR. Look for all this activity to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon out ahead of a cold front and surface
trough. Our most significant coverage and severe risk will come in
the 3 PM to 11 PM time frame as the storms from out west move our
way while coming together to form a possible MCS. Whether
individual cells or an MCS, the main concern this afternoon and
evening will be damaging winds. Some hail is possible. Very heavy
downpours should be expected, but the storms will be moving fast
enough to keep any flooding brief. Capes in our west are already
running over 2000 J/kg and short range models show values peaking
near 4000. Deep layer shear will approach 45kt, so the storms will
have a lot of energy. Thankfully low level shear is not favorable
for tornadoes, but the risk is not zero.

Thunderstorms will move east and gradually weaken late in the
evening. Some additional storms are possible overnight into
Thursday morning, but these are not expected to produce widespread
severe wx.

During the daytime Thursday, additional scattered storms will
form. Conditions will become unstable again, so severe wx is a
possibility. The setup does not look as organized for Thursday,
but still, a few storms may contain gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We continue to be concerned about stormy wx all the way through Memorial
Day. We will be in an unsettled pattern with west southwest flow
aloft bringing a series of waves across the region. The air will
continue to be unstable and moisture-rich with a deep tropical
connection. The holiday weekend will not be a total washout. There
will be periods of time and perhaps some entire days when the
balmy early summer wx beckons us outdoors. But, we must stay wx
aware, because the periods of thunderstorms could bring bouts of
severe wx and localized flooding with generally increasing hazard
potential through the weekend. Sunday and Memorial Day look the
worst at this point with all modes of severe wx in play including
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

Overall, there are a lot of moving parts in this forecast, so the
storm outlooks and forecast details are likely to need adjustment
each day. Have fun but stay aware! A drier, cooler, and much less
humid pattern is ahead just after Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will affect CKV/BNA/MQY this afternoon
with gusty winds and lowered visibilities. CSV/SRB are expected to
get some TS, but timing and intensity is a little in question.
Will handle with VCTS and amd as necessary through the afternoon.

In general, outside of thunderstorms, southwest wind gusts of 20
kts will be common through 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  83  67  83 / 100  80  80  80
Clarksville    66  81  66  81 /  90  80  80  80
Crossville     63  77  62  75 /  70  80  70  80
Columbia       66  82  65  81 /  70  90  70  80
Cookeville     65  78  64  78 /  80  80  70  80
Jamestown      63  78  62  78 /  80  80  60  80
Lawrenceburg   67  81  66  80 /  70  80  70  80
Murfreesboro   66  83  65  81 /  80  80  80  80
Waverly        65  82  66  82 /  80  80  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger