Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
765 FXUS64 KOHX 021716 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1216 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A much less active day with little in the way of convection noted. Just a few isolated showers across our Plateau but that activity should continue to decrease. This is all due to the flattening of the shortwave overnight. In fact, we will see some upcoming ridging into tonight and Monday. For tonight though, could see some fog across our Plateau especially. Current tover values are around -3F with neutral dewpoint trends expected from 00Z through 12Z. Will double check the builder to see if there is any fog input. The pattern will still remain mildly unsettled as another shortwave moves in for Monday night and Tuesday. Instability will ramp up pretty good across western TN on Tuesday afternoon. Furthermore 850 mb mags are around 30 Kts. There is a marginal generally west of the MS river. I`d be surprised if thats not expanded eastward with time. The associated surface boundary is virtually absent though so the synoptic display is non-supportive. Otherwise, rainfall totals though Tuesday night look like an inch far west to a half inch east. For the short term temps, it will be on the warm side for early June. That previously mentioned upper ridging could send our highs into the upper 80s to near 90F on Monday and possibly Tuesday as well. Overnight lows will be summer like with 65F to 70F for most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 In the extended forecast, a more potent and better stacked system is indicated for Wednesday. Looks like a sure fire marginal but nothing out of spc yet. Following the mid week system, will cool off a touch. It certainly looks calmer as some troughing digs along the Atlantic coast. We could see some backside energy with a few showers at times. However, the nbm only references 20 pops at best. Total qpf amounts for the extended period only chime in at around 1 inch across our Plateau(for the Wednesday activity primarily), to just a quarter of an inch west. For the extended temps, quite warm and muggy initially. We actually see a secondary boundary push through on Thursday with some cooler air behind it. Our highs will drop down to near 80F by next weekend. Lows will drop to near 60F. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 With no lightning noted, mentioned only periodic prevailing shwrs SRB/CSV thru 02/14Z with IFR/MVFR ceilings. Otherwise VCSH SRB thru 02/22Z and CSV 03/00Z. Continued with VCSH CKV/BNA/MQY thru 02/16Z as some vcnty shwrs potentially. Mixture of IFR/MVFR ceilings expected with ceiling erosion CKV/BNA/MQY by 02/18Z & SRB/CSV no later than 03/00Z. Slow veering from SW to NW/N thru 03/00. Did address light backing winds at terminals around 03/06Z. MVFR fog formation possible SRB/CSV 03/10Z-03/12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 88 69 88 / 0 10 20 40 Clarksville 63 87 68 85 / 0 10 20 50 Crossville 59 81 61 82 / 20 10 10 30 Columbia 63 87 68 87 / 10 10 20 50 Cookeville 62 82 64 83 / 10 10 10 30 Jamestown 60 81 62 83 / 20 10 10 30 Lawrenceburg 64 86 67 86 / 10 10 20 50 Murfreesboro 63 88 66 88 / 10 10 20 40 Waverly 64 87 68 86 / 0 10 30 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....JB Wright