Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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697 FXUS64 KOHX 301910 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...Re-add 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Another beautiful, dry and unhumid day for late May across Middle Tennessee today with current temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints only in the upper 40s and 50s. Expecting another equally nice and cool night tonight with lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Dewpoints depressions will be quite low again tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies, so patchy fog is likely once again. Tomorrow we start to warm back up as a weak upper level ridge builds northward from the Gulf Coast, with highs reaching the upper 70s on the Plateau and low to mid 80s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 For Friday night into Saturday, an upper level trough is forecast to move from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, which will bring us increasing low level moisture and a return of rain chances. Highest rain chances will be over our western half where the deepest moisture will be, but all areas will see at least chance pops. GFS is stronger with the upper level trough than the ECMWF, but both show strengthening wind fields with unusually strong low level wind shear for early June on forecast soundings. Therefore, if enough instability can be develop by Saturday afternoon during peak heating, a few strong or severe storms with damaging winds or even a tornado are possible - mainly along and west of I-65. However, this potential currently appears low due to the weak instability forecast by on guidance. Regardless of the svr wx potential, frequent lightning and locally heavy rain could occur with any storms on Saturday, and this should be kept in mind with the numerous outdoor activities going on. Weak upper troughing will remain in place over the region Sunday and Monday, keeping us warm and humid with continued scattered showers and a few storms. However, shear will greatly decrease so no strong or severe storms are anticipated those days. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday, wind fields will increase anew as a large upper low moves into the Great Lakes with an associated 60-80kt H5 jet over the Ohio Valley. The increase in deep layer wind shear along with the forecast CAPE suggests another potential for a few scattered strong to possibly severe storms both days. In addition, PWATs are shown by the GFS to rise to near 1.8-1.9 inches, which would allow for storms to dump heavy rainfall and possibly cause some localized flooding issues. Thankfully, nothing looks widespread at this point with shower and storm activity remaining scattered. The upper level low over the Great Lakes will force a cold front through the midstate on Thursday, bringing an end to our rain chances and ushering in a much cooler airmass for the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions continue this taf cycle with winds out of the east between 5-8 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 58 85 67 83 / 0 0 20 60 Clarksville 54 82 64 80 / 0 0 40 70 Crossville 50 78 58 77 / 0 0 10 30 Columbia 55 85 66 83 / 0 0 30 60 Cookeville 55 80 62 79 / 0 0 20 40 Jamestown 50 79 58 78 / 0 0 10 30 Lawrenceburg 55 83 66 82 / 0 0 30 60 Murfreesboro 55 86 66 83 / 0 0 20 50 Waverly 58 83 65 80 / 0 0 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Baggett