530
FXUS64 KOHX 301726
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Another beautiful, dry and unhumid day for late May across Middle
Tennessee today with current temperatures in the upper 60s to mid
70s and dewpoints only in the upper 40s and 50s. Expecting
another equally nice and cool night tonight with lows in the upper
40s and 50s. Dewpoints depressions will be quite low again
tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies, so patchy fog is
likely once again. Tomorrow we start to warm back up as a weak
upper level ridge builds northward from the Gulf Coast, with highs
reaching the upper 70s on the Plateau and low to mid 80s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For Friday night into Saturday, an upper level trough is forecast
to move from the southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, which will bring us increasing low level moisture and a
return of rain chances. Highest rain chances will be over our
western half where the deepest moisture will be, but all areas
will see at least chance pops. GFS is stronger with the upper
level trough than the ECMWF, but both show strengthening wind
fields with unusually strong low level wind shear for early June
on forecast soundings. Therefore, if enough instability can be
develop by Saturday afternoon during peak heating, a few strong or
severe storms with damaging winds or even a tornado are possible -
mainly along and west of I-65. However, this potential currently
appears low due to the weak instability forecast by on guidance.
Regardless of the svr wx potential, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rain could occur with any storms on Saturday, and
this should be kept in mind with the numerous outdoor activities
going on.

Weak upper troughing will remain in place over the region Sunday
and Monday, keeping us warm and humid with continued scattered
showers and a few storms. However, shear will greatly decrease so
no strong or severe storms are anticipated those days. By Tuesday
and especially Wednesday, wind fields will increase anew as a
large upper low moves into the Great Lakes with an associated
60-80kt H5 jet over the Ohio Valley. The increase in deep layer
wind shear along with the forecast CAPE suggests another
potential for a few scattered strong to possibly severe storms
both days. In addition, PWATs are shown by the GFS to rise to
near 1.8-1.9 inches, which would allow for storms to dump heavy
rainfall and possibly cause some localized flooding issues.
Thankfully, nothing looks widespread at this point with shower
and storm activity remaining scattered. The upper level low over
the Great Lakes will force a cold front through the midstate on
Thursday, bringing an end to our rain chances and ushering in a
much cooler airmass for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions and light northeast winds expected for this TAF
cycle as high pressure reigns over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  58  85  67 /   0   0   0  20
Clarksville    78  54  82  64 /   0   0   0  40
Crossville     74  50  78  58 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       80  55  85  66 /   0   0   0  30
Cookeville     76  55  80  62 /   0   0   0  20
Jamestown      74  50  79  58 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   79  55  83  66 /   0   0   0  30
Murfreesboro   80  55  86  66 /   0   0   0  20
Waverly        79  58  83  65 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Unger