Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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620 FXUS64 KOHX 011142 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As of 1 AM CDT this Saturday morning, most of Middle Tennessee remained dry with mild temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Light showers were developing over our far western counties. By daybreak, showers will be covering most areas west of I-65. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue to gradually spread across the Mid State through the day as a large low pressure trough moves east from the Ms Valley Valley. Most of the rain with this system will occur today through early Sunday morning. The greatest coverage and amounts will be found over the west half of our area with some spots receiving downpours producing more than 1 inch of rainfall. Generally lower coverage of showers and lower rainfall amounts will be observed toward the Plateau where totals around one quarter to one half inch will be common. The main surface low pressure center with this system will strengthen as it passes to our northwest today, resulting in breezy winds today with increased deep layer wind shear of 25 to 35 KT. These values are adequate for the potential of strong thunderstorms. However, widespread clouds and showers will hold temperatures down today limiting the available instability. If there are some pockets of partial clearing and greater instability, a strong storm or 2 could form this afternoon. This conditional and marginal risk is in place for the west half of our area this afternoon and early evening. Local damaging wind gusts would be the main feature if nay strong storms can form. The tornado threat is not zero during the time of enhanced wind shear this afternoon, but it is extremely low. The coverage of showers will be generally scattered tonight into Sunday, and most areas will dry out by Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough moves east of our area. As showers taper off and clouds break, temperatures will warm up much more for Sunday and the air will be much more humid than we have experienced the past few days. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Despite the advertised transition to a wetter unsettled pattern, we will actually have a good deal of rain-free time from Sunday night through Tuesday. There will be scattered showers or thunderstorms at times as some weak shortwaves drift across the region in weak zonal flow. The air will be warm and humid, so when thunderstorms do form they could contain some locally heavy downpours. But, we do not see any widespread severe storm or flooding risk at this time. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase Wednesday into Thursday as a couple of stronger system impact the region ahead of a cold front. Details are unknown at this time, but the pattern suggests some severe storm and flood potential Wednesday into Thursday. After the front passes on Thursday, cooler and drier conditions are expected for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Several admendments probable due to fluctuations in specific weather elements time evolution not be adequately addresses in a concise TAF format. Mentioned best 2-3 hr window for tstm terminal formation 01/21Z-01/24Z & SRB/CSV 02/10Z-02/12Z. Sfc pressure gradient influences will support gusts up to 25kts thru 02/06Z. Light showers should become prevalent at all mid state terminals by 01/18Z as showers continue spreading E to W across area. Prevailing sfc SE winds will generally range 5-15kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 66 84 66 / 100 60 40 10 Clarksville 73 65 82 64 / 100 50 20 0 Crossville 70 58 76 60 / 70 70 80 10 Columbia 74 65 84 65 / 100 60 30 0 Cookeville 71 61 78 62 / 80 70 70 10 Jamestown 72 59 77 60 / 70 70 60 10 Lawrenceburg 73 65 82 65 / 100 60 30 10 Murfreesboro 74 64 84 64 / 100 60 50 10 Waverly 74 65 84 65 / 100 50 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....JB Wright