Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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405 FXUS64 KOHX 201139 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 639 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge will continue to build over Middle TN for the start of the week and that will bring quiet and warm weather for us. Highs will be warm once again with them reaching the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon. CAMs do want to bring some widely scattered popup showers over the Plateau this afternoon but soundings show strong substance and these shower chances seem unlikely but afternoon clouds are likely. As for fog early this morning, with slightly drier dew points tonight it should not be as widespread as last night but we still could see some develop in the river valley`s and fog prone areas. Upper level ridge will be overhead on Tuesday with more of the same, dry and warm with highs in the 80s to near 90. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridge will push east for the extended period and we will start to see shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast. An upper level trough and surface low will push through the Great Lakes Wednesday and into Canada on Thursday. This will push a cold front into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. The front will be weakening as it pushes into Middle TN and overall that will limit the forcing with it but we will still see showers and thunderstorms with it. CAPE looks to be 500-1000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear will be marginal for more organized convection but with the weaker forcing the severe threat is overall low. If we were to see any stronger storms wind and hail would be the threats along with heavy rain. The front will stall out over the region on Thursday with a short wave pushing east over us. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. The front will lift north as a warm front on Saturday. We don`t see any strong forcing over the weekend but with the unstable atmosphere shower and thunderstorm chances are going to remain in the forecast. Temperatures will cool back into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday and will warm back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Any lingering fog will quickly burn off this morning, leaving all sites VFR with a light southwest wind today. Skies will be mostly clear, with the exception of passing high clouds over the west. Winds will go calm again after 00Z this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 66 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 88 66 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 81 59 82 62 / 10 0 0 0 Columbia 87 63 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 83 63 84 64 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 83 61 84 63 / 10 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 64 87 66 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 88 63 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 88 66 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Whitehead