186
FXUS64 KOUN 102338
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
638 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

This Evening: `Cool` temperatures, along with low-medium (20-40%)
potential for showers/a few storms across the southwestern
forecast area, are expected into the evening. Amidst a modified
(dry continental) airmass, temperatures are running 5-15 degrees
below average for mid-June. Coolest conditions are occurring
across the Red River Valley, where cloud cover and scattered areas
of precipitation have prevailed for much of the early afternoon.

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a pair of mesoscale
convective vortices (MCVs) rotating across portions of the central
Texas Panhandle/eastern New Mexico. Widely scattered precipitation
development has been ongoing (associated with this feature) since
the mid-morning and is expected across the far southwestern
forecast area for another 2-4 hours. Late this evening (after ~7-8
PM), will monitor approach of a semi-organized storm cluster,
which may skirt far southern portions of our Texas counties into
the late evening. Severe weather potential is very low with any
storm into/through the overnight, though brief periods of gusty
wind/small hail potential with the strongest storms cannot be
ruled out. Heavy rain and localized flooding may also emerge,
especially where heaviest totals have occurred the past 24 hours
(Knox/Foard/Baylor/Wilbarger counties).

Tuesday: Seasonable temperatures (mid to upper-80s) return along
with medium (40-60%) potential for precipitation across southwestern
Oklahoma and north Texas through the evening. Short-range guidance
highlights potential for a round of early to mid-morning
precipitation across aforementioned areas, potentially aided by a
remnant mesoscale vortex. A few thunderstorms may also develop
in the period, though severe weather concern is expected to
remain very low. Widely scattered precipitation cores/areas are
expected into the afternoon/early evening, though forecast to
become more confined (to the far southern forecast area) with
time.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Rest of the Work Week: Hot and mostly dry weather is expected.
Grand ensemble guidance highlights upper ridging across portions
of the Intermountain West/Four Corners by the midweek. The impact
on local sensible weather will be a transition towards hot
temperatures (upper-80s to mid-90s) and dry weather, especially
for Wednesday and Thursday.

Weekend: The return of at least low/widely scattered precipitation
chance is evident by late Friday into the upcoming weekend.
Global deterministic/ensemble guidance shows a previous (cutoff)
upper low across the Desert Southwest transitioning towards an
open wave, while slowly progressing towards the central Plains by
Friday. While uncertainty prevails relating to this feature, and
resultant precipitation/storm coverage in our area, will maintain
mention of at least low (20-30%) storm potential across
northern/western Oklahoma by Friday night into the weekend.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

MVFR conditions expected across southern/southwest Oklahoma and
KSPS terminals much of the forecast period. There will be some VFR
conditions this evening, but with moisture beginning to shift
north and east ahead of incoming mid-level wave, cigs should lower
and rain chances will increase tomorrow morning and last into the
afternoon. Some TSRA will be possible, mainly around KLAW and
KSPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  83  65  89 /  10  20  10   0
Hobart OK         65  81  65  89 /  40  40  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  81  67  88 /  40  50  20  10
Gage OK           63  85  63  92 /  20  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     62  87  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         66  84  65  88 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11