556
FXUS64 KOUN 021826
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun
Jun 2 2024

Near-term forecast has undergone some complications this morning.
Convection across the eastern Texas panhandle, rather than dying
out, has intensified and begun propagating eastward across the Red
River Valley of southwest Oklahoma. The likely culprit appears to be
two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with
dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the
development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing
for convection to develop. While no convection-allowing models have
handled this turn of events well, short-range guidance shows MLCAPE
increasing from 1,500-2,000 J/kg this morning to nearly 4,000 J/kg
(almost certainly overdone thanks to widespread anvil shading in
reality, but still a signal of the increasing moisture/lapse rates
aloft) by noon.

The ongoing storms will continue to propagate eastward along the
developing MCV throughout the rest of the morning and into early
this afternoon. The severe risk will be on the sporadic side due to
the weak nature of overall deep-layer shear. Still, hail to the size
of quarters, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with this
activity as it approaches I-35 along and south of I-40. It`s
possible the activity will begin to weaken this afternoon as it
approaches southeast Oklahoma. Then our eyes will turn to potential
next rounds of severe weather.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 2
2024


The next chance for storms after this early round won`t wait long,
as another round of convection is expected to work in this evening
from the Texas panhandle. Some questions exist about how much of our
area will experience storms this evening due to the steady push of
outflow southward into western north Texas. However, West Texas
Mesonet obs show winds north of the boundary from the east and winds
south of the boundary from the south - an indication that perhaps
the boundary is stalling or "washing out". Dewpoints have dropped to
near 60 on the north side, but it is June so we will have to monitor
for evapotranspirative recovery in western Oklahoma. For now, the
greatest risk for storms this afternoon will be in western north
Texas along and south of the outflow boundary. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible, especially if storms can attain a
more supercellular structure and remain close to the boundary.

This evening, activity will approach western Oklahoma and western
north Texas from the Texas panhandle after firing off of the
dryline. Uncertainty is extremely high given the current presence of
the cold pool/stable air. However, the low-level jet will be active
this evening, which lends some concern to the notion that we could
re-destabilize this evening in advance of another MCS. Trends will
be watched closely.

Believe it or not, there is actually a signal for yet another MCS
this evening to come southeastward out of Kansas. This one might be
impacting our area late tonight through daybreak tomorrow. Beyond
that, there is so much mesoscale uncertainty that it just bears
waiting to see what will happen.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 2
2024

The aforementioned round of storms coming out of Kansas into
northern Oklahoma will throw a wrench into tomorrow`s forecast,
which looked like it might be a pseudo-classic dryline environment
otherwise. Instead, every indication is that early convection will
leave behind one or both of an outflow boundary and a remnant MCV,
which may focus the severe threat tomorrow afternoon somewhere in
either south central or southeast Oklahoma. Given the presence of
those 70+ dewpoints, which shouldn`t be battered too far southward
by today`s storms, damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado
risk can be expected.

Height rises during the day on Tuesday will give it the best chance
to be our clearest day in a while. With that will come the best
chance for parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas to
see their first or second 100-degree days of the year. Highs
elsewhere will rise will into the 90s. The jet will remain active
just to our north, and enhanced northwest flow across the central
Plains will increase the chance for yet another nocturnal MCS across
the northern half of our area Tuesday night.

Drier conditions once again look likely on Wednesday and
potentially even Wednesday night, though not quite as hot.
Thereafter, the storm chances become a bit more nebulous/hard to
forecast, though there is a signal for the worst of the summertime
heat to remain to our south and west.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

TSRA from a MCV will continue to impact our terminals in central
through southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas reducing them
to MVFR conditions with a low CB cloud deck and reduced visibility
at times through 23Z. A second round of storms associated with an
MCS coming off the High Plains may affect our terminals after 03Z
resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions although probabilities are
low at this point so have PROB30s in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  68  85  71 /  80  40  50  20
Hobart OK         83  67  93  69 /  70  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  85  69  91  73 /  80  40  20  10
Gage OK           87  65  93  66 /  20  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     86  68  84  69 /  30  40  50  30
Durant OK         86  69  86  72 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68