142
FXUS64 KOUN 111748
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the Texas panhandle will
slowly move to the east-southeast across western north Texas
today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across
western north Texas and adjacent parts of far southwestern
Oklahoma in association with this feature (development is already
ongoing east of Lubbock). A few showers may occur farther to the
northeast into west central and parts of central Oklahoma, but
will likely be more scattered in coverage with lighter rainfall
amounts. The MCV is expected to exit the area to the southeast by
this evening.

Heavy rainfall and associated flooding will be the primary hazard
with precipitable water values progged to be ~1.7 to 1.9" and
warm cloud layers >10,000 ft. Deep warm cloud layers tend to favor
more efficient rainfall rates due to collision coalescence (i.e.,
warm rain process). A Flood Watch was issued for portions of
western north Texas, where they received 3 to 5+" of rainfall the
last 30 hours. HREF ensemble mean QPF indicates widespread 0.5 to
1.5" of additional rainfall with the 90th percentile (reasonable
worst case scenario) indicating the potential for locally higher
amounts of 2 to 4". Additional heavy rainfall may exacerbate
ongoing flooding and result in additional flooding.

Limited insolation across western north Texas into southwest
Oklahoma will result in a below-average temperatures in the upper
70s and low 80s deg F. Elsewhere, seasonable temperatures are
expected in the mid to upper 80s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday will be the transition day toward a hotter pattern as
the mid-level ridge across the southwest U.S. expands slightly to
the east. Combined with more insolation, temperatures will rise
into the upper 80s to mid 90s deg F.

By Thursday, the Grand Ensemble mean of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS
members indicate a ~595 dam mid-level ridge across the southwest
U.S. and northern Mexico will expand northeastward into the
Southern Plains. The rising mid-level heights and the expansion of
low-level thermal ridge will result in hot and generally dry
conditions Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will range from
the low 90s to low 100s deg F.

By the weekend, the mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward
into the southeast U.S. as a trough approaches the Plains. The
eastward shift of the ridge and the close proximity of the trough
will result in a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across
northern Oklahoma. Even so, hot temperatures are expected to
continue.

By early next week, there are indications that a tropical
disturbance may rotate around the western periphery of ridge. A
weakness in the ridge, combined with tropical moisture, will
result in at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
across southeast Oklahoma by Tuesday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

MVFR ceilings are likely to persist in southwestern Oklahoma and
across the Red River through the afternoon. Showers and a isolated
thunderstorms may occur as well. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected, and relatively light east to south winds are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  66  89  69 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         83  65  89  69 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  80  66  89  69 /  60  10   0   0
Gage OK           86  63  92  68 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     87  64  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         84  66  88  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09