Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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132 FXUS64 KOUN 251928 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 228 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A Moderate severe risk will remain through much of our Oklahoma CWA to an Enhanced risk across our Texas CWA through midnight with the potential of severe storms rapidly growing to supercells initiating east of an approaching dryline and Pacific-based cold front. Increasing moisture will continue to destabilize the warm sector which includes our entire CWA while strong mixing off the surface may erode a weak cap as a low-level jet will be strengthening overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates will result in strong to extreme Mixed Layer CAPE values. The strong instability along with strong shear could start convective initiation later this afternoon into the evening hours with supercells producing very large hail while DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg could produce over 80 mph downburst winds as well as a risk for tornados. Should it develop, it would be fairly fast moving across our CWA and exiting after midnight as the surface boundaries (dryline/cold front) start pushing in from the west. Expecting Sunday to be dry. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 We are still expected to stay dry next week Monday but the forecast becomes "wetter" from Tuesday on with increasing storm probabilities through the latter half of next week. Although sunny and unseasonably warmer (upper 80s to lower 90s) but less humid on Monday, increasing afternoon cloud cover will be cooling temperatures to more seasonably average as next week progresses. However, could still feel muggy if the moister ECMWF solution is correct. Models in agreement with an upper ridge building over the western U.S. returning the Southern Plains to a northwest flow pattern expelling a series of shortwaves resulting in MCS activity coming down from the Central & Southern High Plains. As a result, will maintain POPs for elevated storms from this complex every evening/night starting Tuesday. Down in the lower levels, models also in agreement with increasing moisture transport reforming a dryline lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies with each daytime punch only making it to the New Mexico/Texas state lines. Models do differ with the strength of the moisture return and instability into our area with the ECMWF more aggressive and unstable advecting upper 60s dew points by Wednesday along with a warm front lifting into our area on Friday. Meanwhile, moisture advection is slightly weaker (lower 60s dew points) with a less defined warm front passage with the GFS solution. Without the potential of a surface boundary until the end of the week, both models in agreement with moisture ascent seen in the isentropic fields from the lower through mid-levels for warm advection rain showers although may stay capped for any surface based convection. Thursday night/Fridays convection could be more widespread with a stronger vort-max coming through over a lifting warm front. As far as severe, the overall "moister" ECMWF would suggest a few strong storms with up to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE although shear would be very weak for any severe organization. Long range models deviate at the end of this week with the handling of a large amplitude trough digging through this weekend as per the ECMWF with more of a short wave with the GFS solution. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon outside of near the Red river where some lingering MVFR ceilings will linger into the afternoon hours. Otherwise gusty south/southeast winds will also develop during the afternoon hours. Some convection is expected to develop across the west and move east across the area this evening. LLWS will also occur overnight as the LLJ strengthens to near 50kts. Some MVFR ceilings may redevelop late tonight into Sunday morning, but should be short-lived as surface winds veer ahead of a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 91 61 87 / 40 0 0 0 Hobart OK 64 94 60 92 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 97 63 92 / 30 0 0 0 Gage OK 60 89 54 91 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 68 88 58 86 / 60 0 0 0 Durant OK 72 94 65 89 / 40 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...30