Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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194 FXUS64 KOUN 080959 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 459 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 447 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a line from east central to south central Oklahoma. KFDR radar shows a fine line extending west-southwest from the current activity and some additional development will be possible farther southwest this morning. Forecast soundings show a thin layer of moisture at about 600 mb again this morning with some instability available for parcels lifted from this layer. This moisture may hang on a little longer this morning than yesterday, but what little isentropic lift that is occurring now should decrease, so we do expect a decrease in convection through the morning, but we will include some low POPs beyond sunrise. This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will once again develop on the High plains of Colorado with easterly/upslope flow expected in Kansas and eastern Colorado north of a front that is expected to lie across southern Kansas or possibly northern Oklahoma this afternoon. These storms will evolve into a storm complex this evening. Again the main signal is for this complex to move across Kansas, but could also affect northern Oklahoma. There is some potential for severe storms across northwest/north central Oklahoma. The primary issue would be strong winds with this storm complex, although some isolated hail would also be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 447 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The cold front will push south into or through the area on Sunday. Although the models are not developing precip along the front Sunday afternoon, this will still be an area to watch with high instability and very little CIN, but there is little forcing predicted along the front. But elevated instability will persist north of the frontal boundary and many models show storms developing north of the front Sunday afternoon. The bigger issue with potential severe weather will be yet another complex developing on the High Plains, this time across eastern New Mexico with the easterly/upslope flow farther south north of the surface front. Again this is likely to develop into a storm complex and move east and southeast towards at least the southwestern portion of the forecast area and where the SPC marginal risk is placed. As we get into the work week, the models are more consistent in pivoting the mid-level trough from southern Canada through the Great Lakes region. A surface ridge moves into the Great Lakes area behind this trough pushing the front and the higher low- level moisture farther south. Shower and storm chances will linger into Tuesday and early Wednesday with the front potentially still nearby and afternoon High Plains storms moving toward the area again, but the later part of the week looks drier as an upper ridge begins to increase across the Mountain West. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR ceilings with this TAF period. A boundary will move into parts of the area late tonight/early Sunday causing winds to shift towards the N and NE. Showers/storms will be possible starting late afternoon and continuing through the evening with the highest chances in NW OK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 96 73 88 66 / 10 10 30 40 Hobart OK 101 74 93 66 / 10 10 20 60 Wichita Falls TX 99 74 96 69 / 10 0 10 30 Gage OK 101 66 82 61 / 20 40 30 60 Ponca City OK 99 70 81 61 / 20 30 40 40 Durant OK 94 72 92 70 / 10 0 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...25