Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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296 FXUS64 KOUN 061728 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 With a surface ridge centered over the eastern-third of Oklahoma early this morning, winds are light and variable to calm. Dewpoint depression are 1 to 2 degrees at best, so will likely see shallow ground fog and/or a heavy dew. A few areas of mid-level clouds have developed across northern and central Oklahoma and are generally drifting southward. There may be just enough forcing just before and after sunrise for weak elevated showers. If showers develop, they will move slowly to the east/southeast and stay across mainly north central Oklahoma. Later this afternoon, models are fairly similar in pushing a cold front into northern and central Oklahoma. During peak heating 4 to 6 pm, a few thunderstorms may develop along the boundary with perhaps better chances over the higher terrain in the Texas Panhandle/far west central Oklahoma. Although the flow will not be particularly strong, 30-35 knots around 500mb and decent temperature/dewpoint spreads will support strong wind gusts. Expect a few storms will develop, but less certain along the front in central Oklahoma. Storms that form should move south/southeast around 15 mph. A modest low-level jet over the Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma may aid in the development of elevated showers late overnight into early Friday morning. Severe weather is not expected if convection occurs. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Easterly surface winds early Friday will become southerly and increase during the day, especially across western Oklahoma where gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible. Friday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop well to our west and north. There is a chance that some of these storms may develop over/or move across the northern third of Oklahoma, during the late evening and overnight. A possible MCS over Nebraska and Kansas should remain north and east, but not sure about an associated outflow boundary. Regardless, another cold front is expected to enter northern Oklahoma during the afternoon. Models are not overly excited about development along the front in northern Oklahoma. However, upslope flow should result thunderstorms over eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. This is expected to organize into an MCS and move across at least the northern half of Oklahoma during the overnight/early Sunday morning. Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are certainly possible, with maybe a hail risk on the western edge of the complex. How far the cold front/outflow boundary will be by Sunday afternoon is uncertain. For now will go with the idea of it being across northern Texas. This should limit afternoon thunderstorm chances across much of the area. Overnight Sunday into Monday, warm air advection north of the frontal boundary may result in additional storms. Perhaps another MCS arrives late Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for most sites through the period, though low chances (20-30%) for lowered category (due to thunderstorms) exist across western Oklahoma this evening. A weak front will continue pushing into portions of northern Oklahoma through this afternoon. After 20-21 UTC, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along/near this feature. At this update, PROB30 groups were added at sites (WWR/CSM) where odds for impact/lowered category are highest. Convective concern should diminish shortly after sunset (~02-04 UTC), with additional low chances for a few showers into early Friday morning across northern Oklahoma. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 89 74 95 / 20 10 10 10 Hobart OK 68 95 75 100 / 30 10 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 70 94 75 99 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 64 95 70 97 / 30 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 64 88 72 94 / 20 10 30 10 Durant OK 69 90 73 94 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...34