593
FXUS63 KPAH 072352
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return late tonight through the weekend,
  peaking Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- A few strong storms are possible Saturday evening and overnight.
  Torrential rainfall may produce some flooding issues as well.

- Mainly dry next week, with a warming trend expected mid to
  late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft has made for a
pleasant day across the quad-state. Dewpoint values are dropping
into the upper 40s cutting any soupy feel out of the air. A weak
impulse over the northern Plains is expected to initiate
convection over SD/NE that may start to track southeastward in
our northwest flow aloft regime. Low-level and surface flow
increases out of the southwest later in the overnight period
tonight starting a slow low level moisture return. Models are
pretty insistent on bringing some remnant precip with the
northern Plains initiated MCS activity. Instability for surface
parcels stays near zero and also remains pretty limited for
elevated convective activity. Given that with a limited thunder
chance with scattered showers initiating amid warm air and
moisture advection.

65-70 degree dewpoints just to the southwest look to work back
over the area by mid to late afternoon Saturday. This influx of
moisture coupled with daytime heating will give us a chance of
showers and storms that will increase through the day. The large
scale pattern nudges eastward enough to send a surface cold
front back towards the area Saturday night. This front will
have some moisture and instability to work with and warm
advection to the south of it should also provide some lift.
Guidance likes to draw up training showers/storms along the
front amid large scale flow that runs essentially parallel to
the boundary. PWAT values are projected between 1.9 and 2.1
inches which is very high for the region. HREF PMMs draw up a
5-7 inch bullseye over SEMO, which is probably a little
excessive but shines light on the potential of the event. The
exact placement of the front and convection that ultimately
instates is difficult to pin down but a narrow corridor of very
heavy rainfall is possible, with the best chances somewhere over
southeast Missouri. Given antecedent soil moisture and the
environmental setup we will need to be vigilant to a flash flood
risk. We don`t have enough confidence in placement for a flash
flood watch with this package but one may become necessary
later this weekend if a more specific area emerges a little more
consistently.

Surface front works slowly south through Sunday leaving the
region with fairly seasonable temperatures and modest humidity
with dewpoints falling back into the low 60s and upper 50s.
EC/GFS have flirted with a weak shortwave on Tuesday in previous
runs but that signal looks less impressive today. In general the
extended looks to be steadily warmer with dewpoints working back
upward each day before ending up back in the lower 70s Thursday
into Friday. A cold front then moves into play for the late
Friday/early Saturday period in the 12z guidance suite.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through much of the forecast
period. An approaching disturbance will spread increasing high
and mid level cloud cover into the region tonight. Scattered
showers with the potential for intermittent MVFR visibility will
move across the area late tonight and Saturday morning. A break
in the shower activity is expected by late morning and through
much of the afternoon, but additional thunderstorm development
is possible mainly across southeast Missouri by late afternoon.
Light and variable winds tonight will pick up from the south
around 10 knots with some gusts to 15 knots Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...RJP