Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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361 FXUS63 KPAH 071856 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 156 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and storm chances return late tonight through the weekend, peaking Saturday evening into Sunday morning. - A few strong storms are possible Saturday evening and overnight. Torrential rainfall may produce some flooding issues as well. - Mainly dry next week, with a warming trend expected mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft has made for a pleasant day across the quad-state. Dewpoint values are dropping into the upper 40s cutting any soupy feel out of the air. A weak impulse over the northern Plains is expected to initiate convection over SD/NE that may start to track southeastward in our northwest flow aloft regime. Low-level and surface flow increases out of the southwest later in the overnight period tonight starting a slow low level moisture return. Models are pretty insistent on bringing some remnant precip with the northern Plains initiated MCS activity. Instability for surface parcels stays near zero and also remains pretty limited for elevated convective activity. Given that with a limited thunder chance with scattered showers initiating amid warm air and moisture advection. 65-70 degree dewpoints just to the southwest look to work back over the area by mid to late afternoon Saturday. This influx of moisture coupled with daytime heating will give us a chance of showers and storms that will increase through the day. The large scale pattern nudges eastward enough to send a surface cold front back towards the area Saturday night. This front will have some moisture and instability to work with and warm advection to the south of it should also provide some lift. Guidance likes to draw up training showers/storms along the front amid large scale flow that runs essentially parallel to the boundary. PWAT values are projected between 1.9 and 2.1 inches which is very high for the region. HREF PMMs draw up a 5-7 inch bullseye over SEMO, which is probably a little excessive but shines light on the potential of the event. The exact placement of the front and convection that ultimately instates is difficult to pin down but a narrow corridor of very heavy rainfall is possible, with the best chances somewhere over southeast Missouri. Given antecedent soil moisture and the environmental setup we will need to be vigilant to a flash flood risk. We don`t have enough confidence in placement for a flash flood watch with this package but one may become necessary later this weekend if a more specific area emerges a little more consistently. Surface front works slowly south through Sunday leaving the region with fairly seasonable temperatures and modest humidity with dewpoints falling back into the low 60s and upper 50s. EC/GFS have flirted with a weak shortwave on Tuesday in previous runs but that signal looks less impressive today. In general the extended looks to be steadily warmer with dewpoints working back upward each day before ending up back in the lower 70s Thursday into Friday. A cold front then moves into play for the late Friday/early Saturday period in the 12z guidance suite. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mainly clear skies through this evening, with increasing high and then mid cloud tonight. -SHRA may enter our northwest counties after 08z, with KMVN the most likely terminal to experience it before the end of this TAF cycle. W/NW winds today will become light and variable after sunset. Some gusts around 15-17 kts are possible at KEVV/KOWB this afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG