Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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932 FXUS63 KPAH 051731 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms today, ending this evening as a frontal boundary passes through the area. - High temperatures will cool from the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday to the upper 70s and low 80s for the weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will pass through the area from the west and northwest through early this afternoon. As this happens, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will push through the area along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Forcing isn`t particularly strong along the boundary, but enough to keep scattered showers and storms through early afternoon. Instability is expected to be around 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front, this will allow for thunder, but storms aren`t expected to be strong or severe this morning as shear is fairly weak ahead of the front. Additional showers and storms may develop along the front over the eastern portions of the area, western KY into southwest IN as the frontal boundary exits to the east. High pressure will then begin building in from the northwest overnight, bringing and end to the precipitation. Drier conditions will return for the end of the week (Thursday/Friday) as high pressure continues to build across the region. A closed low is still expected to set up over the Great Lakes for the weekend into early next week. This will set the stage for northwest flow aloft along with several disturbances in the flow around the upper-level low, especially Saturday into Sunday. This will allow for intermittent increases in cloud cover and at least scattered shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend. Expect precipitation chances to increase as it becomes more clear on the timing of each one of the aformentioned disturbances. This will also lead to a bit cooler conditions across the Quad State area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Isolated/scattered shra/tsra possible across the area this afternoon with passage of a weak cold front, but chances too low to include in TAFs at this time. MVFR cigs expected at all TAF sites through 20-22z with occasional breaks to VFR. Low VFR cigs will becoming predominant after 22z, with clouds scattering out by mid to late evening. South to southwest winds at 6-12kts with occasional gusts to near 20 kts will become west late this afternoon into early evening,becoming light overnight. No vsby restrictions unless affected by isolated convection. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...RST DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...RST