742
FXUS63 KPAH 091140
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A front will bring showers and thunderstorms through this
  afternoon, especially over southeast Missouri and portions of
  southern Illinois and far western Kentucky.

- The risk for flash flooding remains the greatest in the Ozark
  Foothills of southeast Missouri. A Flood Watch remains in
  effect from this through 1 PM this afternoon as 1 to 2 inches
  of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected with
  additional rounds of storms.

- Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the week ahead
  with highs reaching the low 90s by late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

At this time, showers are making their way into Southeast
Missouri. Stronger storms are located northwest towards Kansas.
A few showers are also forming in Southern Illinois where MLCAPE
of 500+ J/kg remains. Rainfall rates are lower than the earlier
storms, and severe weather potential has diminished. Northerly
winds are providing convergent surface flow towards the
boundary, fueling the rain potential.

CAMs indicate that showers and storms will continue through the
day today, with the better heavy rain and thunderstorms more
likely to occur during the morning hours. The Flood Watch was
trimmed on the eastern side leaving the western six counties of
SEMO which may receive 1-2 inches of additional rain with
locally higher amounts. CAMs are in fairly strong agreement on
8z-onward totals. PWs around 2 inches through the early
morning are at or above the 99th percentile, so heavy rates
have potential to be the driver of flooding issues rather than
just total rainfall. Model soundings suggest enough shear and
CAPE for a few strong storms and a severe storm is possible. A
marginal risk of severe weather covers much of SEMO and part of
far Western Kentucky.

Dry weather is expected for the week ahead. Initially,
temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs in the upper
half of the 70s to lower 80s Monday as northerly flow brings in
cooler air as a mid-level trough digs into the Midwest. As this
trough slides to the east, high pressure moves in on Tuesday.
With high pressure shifting to the east, light southerly flow
brings in warmer and moister air, with temperatures rising to
the lower 90s late week. The latest NBM removed the pockets of
slight chance PoPs late week. While a few ensemble members and
deterministic runs include precip chances, such as the GFS
Thursday evening, broad model support is lacking to justify
deviating from the NBM for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs are moving through the forecast area this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are progressing from west to
east through the day, mainly in the southern half of the Quad
State. Light winds increase to 5-10 kts out of the north as a
boundary pushes south. Winds become calm tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ086-100-
     107>110.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL