Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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511 FXUS63 KPAH 041116 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 616 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through through mid week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms through Wednesday. - Any storms will be capable of producing very heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 80s for the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A shortwave is progged to pass through or just north of the area this afternoon, bringing another chance for scattered showers and storms. Kept probability of precipitation at 40-50% range for due to lower confidence in exact placement and coverage. Instability is a bit lower with that shortwave (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear is expected to in the 20 to 25 kt range. The best shear looks to be farther north, closer to the aformentioned shortwave. If the placement in that is off, the threat could increase toward the afternoon. Very heavy rain and lightning will both be a possibility with the system, but the severe threat still looks fairly low. Storm motion is expected to be fairly slow moving around 20 mph or so with PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Again, this largely points to the heavy rain threat along with localized flash flood concerns. A cold front will approach and pass through the area from the northwest later tonight into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary as forcing increases; however, the forcing isn`t overly strong along the frontal boundary. In fact, the best forcing is much farther norther over norther IL into Wisconsin. That is likely why many of the Hi-Res models only have a scattering of showers and storms vs a solid line. Either way, expect chances of showers and storms to increase overnight into Wednesday morning. Instability is expected to be around 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the front as dewpoints pool up into the upper 60s to low 70s. Shear values are a bit higher, largely lagging behind the front at 25 to 30 kts. Overall the severe threat appears low at this time along the front, with heavy rain and lightning the main threats. Drier conditions will return for the end of the week (Thursday/Friday) as high pressure builds back into the region. A close low is progged to set up over the Great Lakes for the weekend into early next week. This will set the stage for northwest flow aloft along with several disturbances in the flow around the upper-level low. This will allow for intermittent increases in cloud cover and at least scattered shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend into next week. Expect precipitation chances to increase as it becomes more clear on the timing of each one of the aformentioned disturbances. This will also lead to a bit cooler conditions across the Quad State area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An upper-level disturbance will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms intermittently throughout the day with a frontal boundary arriving late tonight into Wednesday morning. Tried to keep the thunder potential to the most likely time frame, but a storm could easily pop up outside of that with amendments likely today and tonight. As precipitation starts, expect some lower ceilings in the MVFR range 2000-3000 ft this morning and again later tonight ahead of the frontal boundary. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...KC