002
FXUS63 KPAH 040817
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
317 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  through through mid week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms through Wednesday.

- Any storms will be capable of producing very heavy downpours
  and frequent lightning.

- High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 80s for
  the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A shortwave is progged to pass through or just north of the area
this afternoon, bringing another chance for scattered showers and
storms. Kept probability of precipitation at 40-50% range for due to
lower confidence in exact placement and coverage. Instability is a
bit lower with that shortwave (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear is expected
to in the 20 to 25 kt range. The best shear looks to be farther
north, closer to the aformentioned shortwave. If the placement in
that is off, the threat could increase toward the afternoon. Very
heavy rain and lightning will both be a possibility with the system,
but the severe threat still looks fairly low. Storm motion is
expected to be fairly slow moving around 20 mph or so with PWATs in
the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Again, this largely points to the heavy
rain threat along with localized flash flood concerns.

A cold front will approach and pass through the area from the
northwest later tonight into Wednesday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the frontal
boundary as forcing increases; however, the forcing isn`t overly
strong along the frontal boundary. In fact, the best forcing is much
farther norther over norther IL into Wisconsin. That is likely why
many of the Hi-Res models only have a scattering of showers and
storms vs a solid line. Either way, expect chances of showers and
storms to increase overnight into Wednesday morning. Instability is
expected to be around 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the front as dewpoints
pool up into the upper 60s to low 70s. Shear values are a bit
higher, largely lagging behind the front at 25 to 30 kts. Overall
the severe threat appears low at this time along the front, with
heavy rain and lightning the main threats.

Drier conditions will return for the end of the week
(Thursday/Friday) as high pressure builds back into the region.

A close low is progged to set up over the Great Lakes for the
weekend into early next week. This will set the stage for northwest
flow aloft along with several disturbances in the flow around the
upper-level low. This will allow for intermittent increases in cloud
cover and at least scattered shower and thunderstorm chances over
the weekend into next week. Expect precipitation chances to increase
as it becomes more clear on the timing of each one of the
aformentioned disturbances. This will also lead to a bit cooler
conditions across the Quad State area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

An unsettled pattern influenced by the passage of weak upper
level disturbances will keep the potential for scattered showers
in the forecast through Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorms
also possible mainly in the heat of the afternoon. Once such
disturbance may touch off a few showers for the KCGI/KPAH
terminals around daybreak Tuesday. Otherwise, the best shower
and thunderstorm coverage looks mostly likely during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. Mainly VFR conditions are forecast,
but a layer of MVFR stratus appears likely across much of
southeast Missouri and perhaps into southwest Illinois and far
western Kentucky Tuesday morning, impacting mainly KCGI/KPAH.
Light southerly winds will prevail.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...RJP