078
FXUS63 KPAH 030453
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  through much of this week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms, mainly Monday through Wednesday.

- The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy
  downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will
  also be possible.

- High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the
  mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure has allowed for dry conditions today, with the
exception of a spotty light shower in the northeast this
afternoon. Temperatures have risen to the upper 70s to mid-80s
range. Some model guidance suggests minor visibility decreases
tonight in the east.

Active weather begins tomorrow as a disturbance moves
northeastward from Oklahoma. Model trends have been towards
delaying start time, with SEMO getting showers and storms
beginning during the afternoon hours. Showers and storms
continue through the evening and overnight hours. CAMs show a
fairly substantial spread regarding timing and location but
somewhat agree on a semi-organized line near sunset or
overnight, primarily affecting SEMO. HREF PMMs suggest the
potential for substantial rainfall in SEMO, and the Ozarks in
particular. However, this largely comes from the 12Z HRRR and
the NAMnest. The 18Z HRRR alters the location of heavier
rainfall and is lower on top end amounts, while the NAMnest is
an extremely wet outlier and most ambitious with shear that also
seems to be trending closer to the other models as the 18Z data
starts rolling in. Robust instability to 3000 J/kg will produce
convection but, with shear around 20 kts or less (aside from
the NAMnest), severe weather potential should be somewhat
limited, making heavy rain and flooding issues the primary
concern. Models weaken showers/storms that make it to eastern
portions of the Quad State, so better potential for strong
storms and rainfall will be in SEMO and nearby portions of
IL/KY.

Due in large part to variation in handling of the late Monday
to early Tuesday storms, models disagree on additional
showers/storms later in the day Tuesday, either via a smaller
scale disturbance or just delayed progression of the first
system. A much clearer source of showers and storms will be
ahead of the Wednesday frontal passage. Shear is a little
better, but instability reduced, keeping storm severity
potential fairly limited. Across the Monday-Wednesday time
period, 1-2 inches of rainfall is likely, with higher amounts
most likely to occur in SEMO.

Drier conditions move in for the end of the week as high
pressure moves southeastward. Strong mid-level low pressure in
the Great Lakes and high pressure in the Desert Southwest sets
up northwesterly flow aloft. Models favor a track southwest of
the Quad State for the primary NW to SE flow though a slight
chance of precip returns for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Quiet weather with fairly light winds expected tonight into
Monday morning. High clouds will steadily be on the increase at
each of the TAF sites. Otherwise, the next disturbance will
arrive late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, bringing the
next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance will
be over the western TAF sites (CGI/MVN/PAH) with a bit lower
confidence at EVV/OWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...KC