465
FXUS65 KPIH 042026
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
226 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows the leading edge of a H5
ridge of high pressure building NE out of the Great Basin. This
feature will work to introduce a warming trend over the next
several days as conditions remain dry with breezy winds peaking
each afternoon. Elevated 25-40 kt 700 mb winds aloft will remain
overhead through tomorrow as a series of H5 shortwave troughs pass
to our north in Montana. This will lead to wind gusts around
25-45 mph regionwide both today and tomorrow of which will be
strongest across the Snake River Plain. As a result of these
winds, a LAKE WIND ADVISORY will remain in effect through 9 PM
tonight for American Falls Reservoir with the latest forecast
again supporting another potential issuance for Wednesday. Highs
will be in the 60s/70s today before warming by another 6-12
degrees tomorrow, as highs climb up to the 70s/80s associated with
a H5 ridge axis of high pressure shifting directly overhead.
Enjoy the sunshine and what will later this week be the warmest
air mass over SRN Idaho so far this year. MacKay

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.
Our warming trend will be well underway by Thursday afternoon
with highs in the mid to upper 80s through the Snake Plain and
pushing towards the low 90s in the eastern Magic Valley. With the
ridge of high pressure in place, wind gusts will finally be a bit
lighter on Thursday, only gusting to about 20 mph. Wind gusts will
remain in the 20 to 25 mph range each afternoon through the
weekend. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer on Friday with
more of the area making it into the mid and upper 80s with
Saturday looking to be the hottest day of the next few. In fact,
the NBM is showing a 70 to 80 percent chance of highs reaching or
exceeding 90 degrees F on Saturday afternoon for area lower Snake
Plain and eastern Magic Valley. Models do suggest the potential
for some isolated showers and storms as some limited moisture
works up and over the ridge for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
afternoons, but those odds are fairly low, about a 15 to 30
percent chance each afternoon.

While models begin to diverge in the second half of the weekend,
the overall trend is for troughing along the West Coast for Sunday
to bring in some more widespread 20 to 40 percent chances for
showers and storms. This increase in cloud cover and rain/storm
potential will help cool our temperatures by about 5 degrees with
highs in the mid to upper 80s in the lower elevations on Sunday
and low to mid 80s on Monday. AMM

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday.
Wind gusts will be the biggest weather impact both today and
tomorrow as we are expecting dry conditions as high pressure
builds in over the area. Wind gusts will range be around 20 kts at
SUN and DIJ this afternoon and evening with gusts near 25 kts at
BYI and the strongest gusts of near or just over 30 kts at PIH and
IDA. Winds remain breezy at IDA overnight, but will back off at
all other sites. Gusts on Wednesday will be nearly a repeat of
today. Cloud cover will continue to diminish throughout today
leading to mostly clear sky overnight and ample sunshine tomorrow.
AMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The pattern turns dry and warmer beginning today as a ridge of
high pressure builds in from the Southwest. Elevated winds aloft
continue to support breezy conditions at the surface each
afternoon through Wednesday. The strongest winds are expected
across Fire Weather Zone 410, where SW winds will range 25 to 40
mph. Temperatures will continue to increase throughout the week
and are expected to reach into the 90s for some portions of the
Magic Valley and Snake River Plain by Friday. Minimum humidities
will widely range 15 to 30 percent during this timeframe, but
winds should remain light later week. Cropp

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning has been issued for the southern portion of Teton
county. We received a phone call from the Teton County Emergency
Manager of flooding on Fox Creek impacting part of Highway 33 and
the immediate area. This flooding is due to rainfall from
yesterday with much of the Driggs/Victor area receiving between a
quarter inch to a half inch of rain and totals closer to an inch
or inch and a half in the nearby mountains. Additional snowmelt is
also a factor as we are expecting more snow to come off of the
Tetons over the next several days as temperatures warm into the
50s and 60s on top mountain peaks and only fall to the mid 30s
overnight. River levels have increased on the Teton River, but
remain below action level. On the Salmon River, particularly
Valley Creek at Stanley, levels remain elevated, but also just
below action stage. AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for IDZ054.

Flood Warning until 4 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ065.

&&

$$