992
FXUS65 KPUB 062022
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
222 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot again Friday, with highs in the 80s to upper 90s across
  the region.

- Thunderstorms begin to ramp up on Friday across the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday, with strong
  to severe thunderstorms likely along and east of the I-25
  corridor.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday through
  Tuesday, with the most widespread precipitation Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows a few
cumulus clouds popping over the higher terrain. Otherwise, clear
conditions will continue to prevail through this afternoon.
Temperatures are running cooler as well, with most areas across
the Plains and San Luis Valley in the 80s.

Rest of today and tonight...flat zonal westerly flow is
expected to continue through tonight. A weak embedded wave may
spark a couple of weak thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening, mainly across the Pikes Peak Region and higher terrain.
Lightning and outflow wind gusts to near 35 mph may be possible
if storms can get going. Overall confidence in thunderstorm
occurrence into this evening is low.

Later tonight as the low level jet increases out near the
Kansas border, southerly flow will advect moisture back across
our Plains. Weak instability combined with the eastward moving
wave aloft may lead to a few thunderstorms, mainly after 3 AM.
The latest high-res model solutions are not as widespread with
this activity, with a majority developing convection across far
eastern Kiowa County, and quickly taking it east into Kansas.
Did include low pops late tonight out near the Kansas border,
and progress any activity that develops east into Kansas by
Friday morning.

Overnight lows will remain mild across the Plains with lows in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows across the San Luis Valley will
fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Friday...an upper ridge over the Intermountain West will build
on Friday, forcing flow across Colorado more northwesterly. Flow
at the surface is forecast to shift westerly through the
morning hours, pushing the moisture across the Plains to out
near the Kansas border by early afternoon. Another embedded
upper wave in the northwest flow will help to generate showers
and thunderstorms, initially over the higher terrain, and
spreading convection eastward through the afternoon. For areas
over the higher terrain, down into the I-25 corridor, the main
risks include lightning and gusty outflow winds given the dry
low levels. As storms progress eastward through the afternoon
hours, moisture becomes better. A marginal risk of severe storms
exists across the far Eastern Plains, with modest instability
and increasing shear. Hail to near an inch in diameter and wind
gusts near 60 mph will be possible out east with the strongest
storms.

Temperatures on Friday will once again warm up. Highs across
the Plains will reach into the upper 80s across the Palmer
Divide, and near 100 degrees across the lower Arkansas River
Valley. Mid 80s are expected across the San Luis Valley. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms likely
ongoing at the start of the period Friday evening. While the
risk of any additional strong to severe storm development will
lower in the evening, can`t rule out the possibility for
stronger development over the far eastern plains where the
instability axis looks to possibly linger. By mid to late
evening, should see coverage and intensity of any remaining
storms lower but isolated showers will remain possible during
the overnight hours, as the westerly flow ushers in some weak
impulses.

Cold front is expected to push across the region late Friday
into early Saturday, providing some relief with the heat.
However, highest temps on Saturday are still expected to reach
the 80s to low 90s over much of the area. Quickly turn attention
to returning thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon into the
evening, especially across the plains. General synoptic pattern
looks to remain the same, however, guidance in fair agreement
with showing a more defined short wave trough pushing across the
region during the day Saturday. This increased large scale
ascent along with veering low level flow and backing mid level
flow will providing strengthening forcing/focus across southern
Colorado. This will help set the stage for thunderstorm
development initially over the mountains and plains interface by
mid to late evening, and then over the remaining plains later
in the day into the evening. The strong to severe risk will be
higher on this day given the forcing/focus, but more importantly
the increased moisture and instability as far west as the
mountains and plains interface. Given this setup, thunderstorm
development will have a higher chance to quickly strengthen, as
it pulls off the higher terrain. Forecast soundings do indicate
a strong cap in place, though you can see this cap mechanically
erode along the I-25 corridor during the afternoon with the
arrival of the forcing. Further to the east, the cap is even
stronger and will have to see how this factors in additional
thunderstorm development later in the day and evening. While I
don`t think it will completely limit thunderstorm development, I
think it will help to keep storms more limited and discrete.
This will be something else to closely monitor, especially given
the instability and abundance of shear that will support the
risk of all hazards on Saturday.

By Sunday, will see rising heights and weakening flow, but will
see moisture and instability remain in place. It does look as
if the moisture/instability axis shifts further west, with
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains and mountain valleys. With weakening flow, the risk
for more widespread organized development lowers. That being
said, can`t completely rule out another day of at least isolated
strong to severe storms. What will be more concerning on this
day and even again on Monday given a persistent pattern, is the
risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. It does appear that
by Tuesday, we`ll see coverage of precip chances lower that
continues on Wednesday as upper ridging is the trend. This will
return building heat to the area though, with well above normal
temperatures in the 80s and 90s returning to southern Colorado
by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three
terminals. A few mid to high clouds will be possible this
afternoon and evening. A few showers and thunderstorms may be
possible at KCOS on Friday afternoon. Mozley

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue over the mountains and
valleys through Friday with continued rapid snow melt. This will
lead to elevated flows from the headwaters of the Arkansas
River near Leadville, south to near Canon City. At this time,
flooding is not anticipated, but high flows can be dangerous and
make river banks unstable. Caution is urged near the Arkansas
River. Slight cooler temperatures may dampen the snow melt some
this weekend into early next week.

Heavy rainfall continues to look possible from Saturday into
Monday for areas along the Eastern Mountains, into the Eastern
Plains. Localized flash flooding may be possible on area burn
scars, and in urban areas. This rainfall may also combine with
remaining snowmelt leading to high flows on area streams and
rivers. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...MOZLEY
HYDROLOGY...MOZLEY