Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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935 FXUS65 KPUB 311013 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 413 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are likely (60-80% chance) for our plains today, with all modes of severe possible, to include: isolated tornadoes, hail up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds gusting over 60 mph, and cloud to ground lightning. - One more day of strong to severe thunderstorms on the plains expected on Saturday. - Hotter and drier weather in store from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Outflow boundaries from late night convection north of our forecast area are still working through our plains and helping to increase dewpoints for many locations. Temperatures are in the 50s, with dewpoints ranging from 50s on our eastern plains to mid 40s across the I-25 corridor. Satellite imagery depicts mid and upper level cloud cover across much of the area, and lingering showers still working their way into northeastern Kiowa County this hour. Overall thinking is that models are lagging a bit on the amount of moisture that we may have to work with tomorrow, especially given that tonight`s convection to our north wasn`t handled very well by many high res solutions. Today and Tonight.. In many ways, today looks to be a rinse repeat of the past several days, with weak convection firing early over the mountains, and stronger storms firing over the southern plains and the Pikes Peak region after 1 pm, becoming severe quickly as they move eastward throughout the afternoon. The main difference with today is that we will have stronger shear (35 to 40kt), and likely more moisture as well. CAPE values are still anywhere from 1500 to 2200 J/Kg depending on timing, location, and model, but again we could be under-doing our moisture for today already. The forecast vertical profiles across our plains today give way to more of a non-zero threat for tornadoes that what we`ve seen for the past several days, so much so that SPC has included our entire plains along and east of I-25 in a 2% tornado outlook for this afternoon for the first time this week. Storm relative helicity values are not super impressive, but, again, are still non-zero. Highest shear and most favorable helicity looks to exist across eastern El Paso and into our plains, generally across areas along and north of Highway 50 this afternoon. If last night`s convection and today`s moist east-southeasterly winds end up bringing in more moisture than models are currently resolving, today could end up being a dangerous day across our plains, with all modes of severe possible to include isolated chances for tornadoes. Large hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and cloud to ground lightning will also be likely with storms on our plains today, for all areas along and east of I-25. Please stay weather aware this afternoon, and listen for any warnings in your area! Though most high res model guidance does suggest that convection could linger into the overnight hours, the consensus seems to be that most locations will be quiet and dry by around midnight or so at the latest. The main exception is the NamNest, which keeps the possibility of weakening storms on our plains until nearly 4am this morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Mountains and interior valleys begin to dry on Saturday under w-sw flow aloft, while low level moisture holds on across the plains for one more day. By late Sat afternoon, air mass along and east of I-25 becomes fairly unstable, with CAPE approaching 2000 J/KG, while 0-6km shear rises into the 40-45 kt range as subtle jet streak slips through nrn CO. Above parameters will favor another round of severe storms from mid-afternoon into early evening, before activity shifts eastward in KS and diminishes by midnight. Large hail and strong winds the main storm threats, while tornado threat at this point looks rather low given lack of any e-se component in low level wind field. Pattern change begins Sunday as broad upper trough moves through the Rockies, bringing increasing swly flow and drier air to much of srn CO. Still a low risk of storms near the KS border Sun afternoon/evening as dryline doesn`t push very far across the state-line, so will keep some isolated pops in place for the eastern tier of counties, but go with a dry forecast elsewhere. Deep mixing and mid-level thermal ridge over the area Sun afternoon suggest the warmest air of the year so far at many locations, with 80s/90s widespread at lower elevations and mainly 70s across much of the higher terrain. Western upper ridge then builds for next week, though models/ensembles still have some position differences on where main axis will lie and timing/strength issues on short wave energy topping the ridge and diving into the upper midwest. In general, look for hot and dry weather Mon-Wed, then some slight cooling/moistening of the air mass over at least the plains toward the end of the week, along with a return of at least isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of tonight and into tomorrow morning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KCOS from 20Z until 03Z this afternoon, and from 22Z until 01Z for KPUB. MVFR ceilings and visibilities, along with lightning and gusty winds will be possible with any storms that move over or near either station today KALS...VFR conditions are expected for KALS for the next 24 hours. Light southwesterly and westerly winds are likely through most of the forecast period. Some showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible along the terrain surrounding the station, though chances of any storms moving within the vicinity are low at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...EHR