Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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050 FXUS65 KPUB 151728 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1128 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased chances for scattered strong to severe storms, capable of producing large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph, this afternoon into the early evening, for areas along and east of I-25. - Locally heavy rainfall is appearing likely today, with a low risk of flash flooding at this time. - Uptick in showers throughout Thursday, with greatest coverage during the afternoon, with showers dissipating during the evening. - Relatively quieter weather for the end of the week and through the weekend, though isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible. - Active weather returns for early next week, with showers for some, and critical fire weather conditions possible for the plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 412 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Upper trough in place across the region this morning with once again, the stronger vorticity maxima staying just to the north. However, shortwave energy noted on latest satellite imagery continues to stream overhead, and with a fair amount of cloud cover and some isolated showery development in place. Do think precip chances will remain low this morning given the deep westerly flow, along with some drier conditions in place. With the arrival of a cold front and with at least scattered mid and high clouds in place this morning, most of southern Colorado will observe cooler temperatures today. Didn`t really make too many changes to today`s high temps, with 60s expected across the mountain valleys and 60s to 70s expected over the plains. Similar precip trends expected for much of the morning with most locations staying dry, however, will see isolated showers begin to develop across the higher terrain by late morning into the midday time frame. Trends early this morning have been indicating increasing chances for strong to severe storms across the plains this afternoon into the evening. Previously mentioned upper trough will dig later this afternoon, with additional shortwave energy pushing overhead along with an additional upper trough axis moving into Colorado. Meanwhile, above mentioned front will continue to spill south across the plains, with northeast to east winds ushering in higher dewpoint air. Most guidance in fair agreement with this trend, and even showing the mid to upper 40 degree dew points pushing right into the higher terrain and mid Ark Valley. While we may see daytime mixing assist with lowering these dew points some, I don`t think the dew points will fall too much. Forecast soundings are showing this trend and can`t argue given higher dew points upstream and steady easterlies in place, along with the mid/upper clouds overhead. As this is occurring, will likely see two separate surface trough axes develop this afternoon, one across the Pikes Peak region and another one by the Raton Mesa. Lastly, 700mb winds veer easterly while increasing, all setting the stay for a fair amount of large scale ascent and focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon into the evening. Initial development looks to be focused in these areas by early afternoon, with coverage and intensity of this development increasing during the afternoon hours, while also pushing east into the remainder of the plains. Building instability in this higher dewpoint air looks to support areawide CAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg across much of southern Colorado this afternoon. The higher dew point air will help support pockets of CAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range across the plains. One pocket looks to be right up against the higher terrain and into the I-25 corridor, and another pocket over the far southeast plains, along and east of a Kim to Lamar line. With this instability, the above mentioned forcing, along with bulk shear values of 35-45kt, think the increased chances for strong to severe storms is warranted over most of the plains. Once again, model trends this morning are supportive of this, along with HREF output showing probabilities greater than 50-60% for CAPE greater than 750 j/kg, CIN greater than -25 j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear greater than 30kt within both of the areas mentioned above. Expected hazards in this setup today are large hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph. Additionally, given the higher moisture air with focus and instability right into the higher terrain and urban corridor, expect locally heavy rainfall along with a low risk of flash flooding. Once again, given the focus right into the higher terrain, there is also a low chance for impacts to the Decker and Spring burn scars. Additionally, no real changes to the setup well into the evening with easterly moist upslope flow supporting additional showers and thunderstorms over the southeast mountains and I-25 corridor. So, while the severe risk lowers into the evening, the risk for additional for heavy rainfall will remain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 412 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Thursday: Showery and active weather continues for the Thursday timeframe. Messy flow is expected over south central and southeastern Colorado as two systems continue to interact as they push to the south and southeast. With this pattern in place, broad forcing is anticipated over the region, with more focused forcing along the mountains. Given the ascent over the area, showers are expected to be ongoing during the early part of Thursday, though primarily over the mountains. Then as the day progresses and instability rises, scattered showers will increase in coverage, though again, the greatest coverage of showers will remain along the mountains given better forcing. Given the modest instability present, weak thunderstorms will be possible. With that all said, as the systems exit the area, and instability lessens, showers across the region will quickly weaken and dissipate during the evening, with dry conditions then prevailing overnight. As for temperatures, a cool day is anticipated given the unsettled pattern overhead. Much of south central and southeastern Colorado will remain around and slightly below seasonal values for mid May. Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and into the weekend, relatively quieter weather is expected. Flow will become more zonal as a ridge develops to the south of the region. Given the lack of any major forcing with this pattern, dry conditions are expected, with the exception being isolated to widely scattered showers over the mountains given minor orographics. With that all said though, two features may increase precipitation chances further, with a cold front dropping southward Saturday and a disorganized shortwave ejecting over the area Sunday. Both features will bring modest upticks in forcing and could help blossom additional showers across the mountains and plains. Looking at temperatures, rebound to warmer temperatures is anticipated, even despite the minor cold front Saturday. Much of the region will warm to above seasonal values. Monday - Tuesday: For the start of next week, an uptick in active is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The zonal flow in place will start to become more meridional, and more troughing is anticipated over the region, which ensemble model guidance are in decent agreement on. Precipitation chances will rise for portions of the area, particularly the mountains, as forcing starts to increase. With that said though, there are signals the plains will become dry slotted with this pattern, which is evident in ensemble model guidance QPF fields. Given that, critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the plains, though recent moisture and greenup of grasses and brushes may limit large fire growth potential. Finally, temperatures during this period will vary between the two days. Monday will be warmer ahead of the system, while Tuesday will experience a cool down as cold front drops southward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will impact all three terminals this afternoon into this evening. Lightning, reduced VIS and CIGS are expected with storms that pass over the terminals. Outflow wind gusts in excess of 30 to near 40 kts are possible as well. Low CIGS will likely remain in place overnight into Thursday morning, returning to VFR conditions by Thursday afternoon. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOZLEY