981
FXUS62 KRAH 100646
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest and north Tuesday
through Wednesday, then move off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Cooler with lowering humidities today.

The main cold front will push offshore this morning. There is still
a chance of a shower across the southeast Coastal Plain through
around 15z today. Otherwise, the current mid and high cloudiness
will gradually shift to the SE and out of the region today. A weak
surface trough is expected to pass through the region this
afternoon and evening. There will be less moisture to work with as
the main synoptic front will be at the coast. We will keep the POP
less than 15 percent this afternoon and early evening. Highs today
should reach the mid 80s.  Dew points will be dropping off this
afternoon into the 50s, making for more comfortable conditions.
Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight. Lows will be in the 55-60
range north and 60-65 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Another day of cooler temperatures and lower relative humidities.

Weak low pressure will be exiting the mid-Atlantic coast with high
pressure building in from the Midwest Tuesday morning. CAA during
the day will lead to a day with slightly below normal temperatures.
Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s with partly sunny skies. Dew
points and relative humidity values will remain lower than normal,
as well. This will continue the trend of comfortable conditions for
at least this one more day. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

The extended forecast continues to trend drier, along with hot and
humid conditions for the late week period into at least the first
half of the weekend. The best chance of showers or storms may not be
until the weekend, and even then, chances are low/uncertain.

Wednesday we will see high pressure over the area that will shift
offshore later in the day and largely remain out over the western
Atlantic into at least Sat. Aloft, WNW flow will be in place,
followed by ridging over the central/southern Plains shifting east
into the region by the latter part of the weekend. Somewhat still
comfortable weather Wed in the mid/upper 80s will transition to more
hot and humid weather to close out the week and start Sat with low
to mid 90s as low-level thicknesses rise some 30 m above average.
The NW flow could favor some convective complexes over the Great
Lakes Thu/Fri that could impact the lower OH valley, but with
ridging over us we appear sheltered from this activity. There could
be some diurnal showers/storms late in the week tied to the sea-
breeze or lee surface trough over the Piedmont, but there is not
much deep forcing in the guidance to warrant more than slight
chances at the moment given ridging in place.

Over the weekend, models are in decent agreement that a cold front
could approach late Sat and perhaps linger over the area or move
through Sun. This period would appear our best chance of some
storms, but even then, the front could pass through dry as most of
the mid-level energy remains to our north. For now, have low end
chances for Sat and Sun. The uncertainty with the front Sun limits
confidence on highs, but for now we trended a little lower than Sat
with upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 128 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will dominate late tonight through Mon, although an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out very late Mon as a second front
approaches the area. Surface winds will remain gusty into tonight,
from the WSW or W shifting to NW after frontal passage.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, with surface high pressure extending over
the area, VFR conditions are likely to persist through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Badgett