421
FXUS62 KRAH 092308
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
710 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will move through
the region tonight. A second front will drop southeast through the
area late Monday through Monday evening. High pressure will build in
from the northwest and north Tuesday through Wednesday, then move
off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

...Marginal Risk of severe storms across southern NC...

The 18Z surface analysis shows the cold front draped across
VA/WV/KY, with a pre-frontal trough over central NC. Meanwhile, a
weak disturbance passing through the area will be followed by a
second, stronger s/w this eve/tonight, coincident with the cold
front at the surface moving into central NC. PWATs have increased
into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range as of the 18Z SPC mesoanalysis. These
values may increase further over the next few hours as wswly flow
advects additional moisture into the area. Still expect MUCAPE to
peak at 500 J/Kg or less, with effective shear around 40 kts. Given
the temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s,
sufficient moisture, forcing, and at least some instability, showers
and storms are still expected this eve/tonight, mainly within the
pre-frontal trough as the s/w aloft passes. As the cold front moves
into and through the area, there may be additional shower/storms
ahead of it. The weather should dry out in the wake of the front
from the NW tonight, however there may be some lingering
showers/possible storms in the Sandhills/Coastal Plain late early
Mon morn. There is still the chance for isolated damaging winds with
the strongest storms, mainly across the south this eve. Lows tonight
should bottom out in the low/mid 60s NW to mid/upper 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...

...Lingering rain chances across southern NC through early Monday...


The effective, lead cold front is forecast to be well south of the
area by daybreak. However, weak perturbations embedded within the
plume of deeper moist and weak instability lingering across the far
southern zones could support another round/area of post-frontal
convection between 12 to 16z.

Additionally, a shortwave trough pivoting SEwd through the base of
the long wave trough will lead to the development of a secondary
cold front Monday afternoon that will move south across the area
during the evening. Probabilistic guidance indicates non-zero
chances for some isolated showers and with this feature. Otherwise,
it should be drying out by the afternoon and not as hot. Highs
ranging from lower 80s north to mid/upper 80s south.

The secondary frontal passage Monday evening will usher in even
cooler and less humid into the area as continental surface high
builds in from the northwest. Lows ranging from mid/upper 50s north
to 60-65 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

The extended starts off quiet and comfortable with slightly below
normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s Tuesday. Dewpoints in the
50s to low 60s will make outside feel comfy in the mornings but
still tolerable in the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. As an upper
level ridge moves across the OH valley and over the northern Mid-
Atlantic region early to mid week dry weather is expected across our
area Tuesday through at least Friday morning. By late week an
abundance of moisture will move in from the Gulf of Mexico/Florida
resulting in some chance of showers and storms in the afternoon each
day Fri-Sun. For now have diurnal afternoon PoPs focused over the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain regions but can expect PoPs to expand
west with time and more consistent model guidance. Highs
temperatures will remain above average and gradually increase each
day. Thursday through the weekend temps will range from low 90s NW
to mid 90s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 PM Sunday...

With a surface front pushing SSE through the area through tonight,
the primary aviation concern will be the scattered showers and
storms that will cross central NC over the next several hours,
tracking toward the east-southeast and expected to pass near all TAF
sites between issuance time and 05z (although a few showers may
linger near FAY until 07z). Brief MVFR-IFR conditions and
gusty/erratic winds are expected in and near these showers/storms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate outside of storms, and from
late tonight through Mon, although an isolated shower can`t be ruled
out very late Mon as a second front approaches the area. Surface
winds will remain gusty into tonight, from the WSW or W shifting to
NW after frontal passage.

Looking beyond 00z Tue, with surface high pressure extending over
the area, VFR conditions are likely to persist through the remainder
of the week. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield