457
FXUS61 KRLX 121623
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1223 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday.
Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot
and muggy to end the week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1216 PM Wednesday...

Previous forecast remains on track. No changes needed at this
time.

As of 605 AM Wednesday...

Fog has trickled out into the valleys this morning, captured
reasonably well by the existing forecast. Fog lifts and
dissipates over the next couple hours. No changes needed at
this time.

As of 120 AM Wednesday...

A quiet pattern continues as troughing over the east coast is
increasingly replaced by high zonal flow aloft with high pressure at
the surface. The main forecast issue for this morning and again
Thursday morning will be coverage of fog with near zero flow through
10kft, seasonably moist low levels, and dry air in the mid-levels
overhead. With lack of substantial recent rainfall will confined any
significantly reduced visibilities to the valleys with a patchy fog
mention elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1218 PM Wednesday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday with
approaching mid-level vorticity and a surface cold front. As
the cold front approaches, dew points ahead of it will reach
60-70 degrees. This, along with afternoon peak heating, will
provide fuel for afternoon convection. SPC currently has
northern portions of WV and southeast OH outlooked in a marginal
risk of severe weather for Friday afternoon and evening, mainly
for the threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. Confidence
remains low at this time, as models are having difficulty
grasping the magnitude of instability. Some models only predict
around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE develops by Friday afternoon, while
other models are more aggressive, showing 500-1,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE developing. 0-6 km shear will be anywhere from 30-40 kts
ahead of the cold front, which should be ample enough to support
organized convection. We will have to wait and see how things
pan out, as there could end up being too much low level moisture
and clouds present, which could keep thunderstorms below severe
limits.

Friday`s cold front will help remove some of the humidity for
the weekend, but it won`t be very effective at cooling us down.
Highs are expected to be from the middle to upper 80s Friday
afternoon, and Saturday`s highs will be from the lower to middle
80s behind the front. Dry conditions are expected Saturday as a
ridge strengthens over the Southeast U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1219 PM Wednesday...

An extended hot, summerlike pattern will develop Sunday through most
of next week with high pressure strengthening over the eastern 1/3
of the country. Models show 500-mb heights rising to 592dm by Sunday
and potentially reaching 596-598dm by the end of next week. The
ECMWF favors a largely dry solution most of next week, while
other models like the GFS and Canadian show more of a ring-of-
fire scenario mid- to-late week with vorticity flowing around
the outskirts of the ridge. We believe the drier solution should
largely win out, but we decided to include slight chance PoPs
for mid-to-late week to account for the possibility of mid-level
disturbances triggering thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 605 AM Wednesday...

Valley fog mixes out through 13Z with just SCT high clouds
floating across the region. Patchy fog valley fog is possible
again tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds.

Winds remain light, weakly favoring a northerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog tonight morning
could vary from the forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP