435
FXUS61 KRLX 041828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
228 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and quieter weather for today, cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm. Showers and storms return Wednesday
ahead of a cold front on Thursday. Not as warm this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1247 PM Tuesday...

Pulse showers and thunderstorms are developing in eastern
Kentucky amid a hot and humid atmosphere with SBCAPE ranging
from 1,000-2,000 J/kg. However, there is very little shear, with
0-6km bulk shear less than 20 kts at all locations. Without
shear, thunderstorms will not be able to organize very well.
Therefore, we still expect a minimal threat for severe weather
today. Isolated instances of flooding remain possible if
multiple downpours cross over the same areas. Activity should
quiet down overnight with some patchy fog possible in the river
valleys.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
with an approaching 500-mb shortwave. Just like today, the
potential for severe weather tomorrow will be minimal due to a
lack of shear. Perhaps the area with the best chance at seeing
an isolated strong to severe storm will be southeast Ohio, where
0-6km bulk shear is expected to approach 30 kts. The main
threats would be damaging winds and small hail. The entire area
is placed under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday with
a very juicy atmosphere. Models expect PWATS to range from
1.5-1.8 inches across the region. Convection will be a little
more widespread Wednesday than today with a 500-mb shortwave
overhead, translating to a slightly higher potential for
isolated flooding. This will be the main thing to watch out for
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

A low-level jet could develop Wednesday evening/night, allowing
for the threat of stronger thunderstorms before all is said and
done. CAPE will be on the downward trend after sunset though,
however a few models show an MLCAPE boundary of 1,000J/Kg that
could keep activity going a bit past sunset. Shear also looks to
increase from 15-20kts to 20-30kts with the arrival of the LLJ.
Still, these values are not conducive to a large-scale severe
threat, so the thinking is maybe a few stronger or isolated
severe storms with damaging winds and small hail. There is a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across our SE Ohio
counties and portions of WV along the Ohio River Wednesday
evening/night.

Heavy downpours will still be a continued concern in the
evening with PWATs in the neighborhood of 1.50-1.75". Isolated
flash flooding instances will be on the table and the area is
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Wednesday
night.

PoPs taper off from west to east Wednesday night, becoming more
confined to the mountains as a large, upper-level low moves down out
of Canada and forces a cold front through. Thursday looks to start
off dry as a result, but chances for diurnal showers or storms
remain as temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across the
lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Some quarrel with this is
that the atmosphere looks to be capped Thursday, with a mid to
upper-level dry layer. That said, kept higher chance PoPs
farther east along the mountains where the elevated heat source
and lift will be more favorable for storm/shower formation.

Conditions look to become fairly dry across the area Thursday night
with lows dropping back in the 50s to around 60 for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Previously mentioned low pressure system will remain just north of
the area for the long term period, which means somewhat active
weather through the weekend. Severe weather does not look to be on
the table right now, but the chances for the usual diurnal
shower/thunderstorm activity remains each day, even at the
beginning of next week.

Starting Friday, temperatures will be less warm, but still
comfortable with 70s across the lowlands; upper 50s to low 70s
in the mountains. Overnight lows the weekend will be cooler with
the lowlands dropping to the 50s each night and mid 40s to mid
50s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1246 PM Tuesday...

Conditions will be predominately VFR through this evening.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon and into this evening, and any thunderstorm can
briefly reduce visibility to IFR conditions at any terminal.
VCTS has been coded into the TAFs.

Patchy dense fog is expected at KEKN overnight with visibility
reductions down to IFR from 09Z until shortly after sunrise. Fog
is possible at other locations as well, but not confident enough
to include in the other TAFs at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may develop in other locations than
currently expected overnight and into Wednesday morning.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JMC