007
FXUS61 KRLX 090622
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
222 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front passes overhead today, providing a chance of
showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Mainly dry through the
work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

A moisture starved cold front is set to pass over the area from
north to south today. Radar trends at the time of writing depict
rain draped along the front from northern Ohio into upstate New
York, which will gradually shift southward through the course of
the early morning hours. Showers should then arrive to the
northern fringes of our forecast area closer to daybreak,
continuing a southward progression later this morning into the
afternoon.

Thunderstorm development along the front becomes more
likely during the heat of the afternoon, which may come at a
point where the front will have almost already completed its
full passage through our southern forecast zones. Maintained a
mention of thunder for the coalfield areas this afternoon, then
tapering back down to only lingering showers by the evening.

Upper level jet support drifts out the area tonight in tandem
with the surface cold front tracking further south into the
Carolinas and Mississippi Valley. Dry weather then settles back
over the Central Appalachians for the end of the period and into
the start of the new week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

Northwesterly flow continues aloft through Tuesday yielding
temperatures a little cooler than normal for this time of the year
for Monday and Tuesday. Couldn`t completely rule out a stray shower
on Monday as a shortwave transits the base of the long wave trough
overhead, but most locations should remain dry. Heights begin to
rise Tuesday as low amplitude ridging begins to move into the Lower
Ohio Valley with surface temperatures edging up around a degree or
two above Monday`s values. With a still rather dry airmass and no
forcing overhead, Tuesday should be a dry day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

Heights continue to build through the end of the work week despite a
rather flat pattern aloft. A modest increase in low level
southwesterly flow will begin to usher some moisture back into the
region with dew points increasing from the lower to mid 50s to lower
60s mid-week and beyond. Temperatures will also be on the rise with
highs approaching 90 across the lowlands by Friday.

Modest low level moisture and weak mid-level lapse rates won`t allow
for much conditional instability, so any afternoon shower coverage
appears isolated at best through at least Thursday. Model consensus
does suggest cold frontal passage Friday or Saturday with at least
some better chances for impactful weather returning to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Scattered to broken clouds continue to overtake the area early
this morning ahead of a frontal passage progged near daybreak.
MVFR ceilings will be draped along the front, with some pockets
of IFR possible along the mountains. Should see ceilings recover
quickly into the afternoon as the front continues a southward
progression. A few showers will also accompany the front,
passing over our terminals during the morning into early
afternoon from north to south. Thunderstorm development along
the front will be more likely to occur after the front has
completed its passage through all TAF sites. Dry weather returns
this evening into the overnight hours.

Light surface winds will gradually veer out of the northwest
today as the cold front presses overhead. May see a brief wind
of LLWS at EKN around daybreak this morning with a passing low
level jet, but otherwise post-frontal winds may impose breezier
conditions for the afternoon and evening. Surface flow tapers
down late this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, becoming Medium with FROPA.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms with the cold front today could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 06/09/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK