030
FXUS61 KRLX 301741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into
next week. Above normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...

Enjoy this quiet, sunny day amid high pressure with temperatures
in the 60s and lower 70s. Tonight will be quite chilly with
overnight lows dropping into the 30s in the mountains and the
40s in the lowlands. A frost advisory is in effect in the higher
elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties from 6-12Z
Friday for the potential for frost development, so it will be a
good idea to protect sensitive vegetation overnight.

Friday will be similar to today with high pressure in control.
Expect dry conditions with temperatures reaching the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM Thursday...

Dry and quiet conditions expected Friday and Saturday, courtesy of a
broad surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes,
south into the OH Valley and West Virginia. Temperatures will feel 5
degrees cooler than normal on Friday and Friday night under weak
northerly flow. However, boundary layer flow veers from the
southwest by Saturday morning, ahead of an approaching upper level
trough. This will provide a warming trend into the weekend. A clean
transient upper level ridge will support stable conditions Saturday.
Therefore, expect a warm up Saturday afternoon under sunny skies
with highs reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into
the upper 60s higher elevations.

Boundary layer southwest flow increases Saturday night and Sunday,
bringing descent moist and warm advection to the area, while the
upper ridge moves east, allowing a sharp trough to cross the area
during the same time. The upper level support and available moisture
could allow for chances of showers Saturday night, increasing in
coverage and intensity Sunday.  Associated upper level forcing will
combine with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches to sustain showers and
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

Some guidance suggests a shortwave within the upper trough will push
a cold front Sunday, pushing convection east of the mountains by
Sunday night. However, other guidance points at the stalling cold
front north of the area by Monday. Accepted NBM temperatures with a
warming trend, Sunday to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

Models diverge a bit going into the long-term as a strong high
pressure system moves off the coast of the Carolinas to start
the new work week. A back door front looks to set up across
northern WV going into Monday morning before it lifts up north
through the day. As such, precipitation chances look to recede
during the day, minus chances for showers and storms along the
mountains.

A warming trend with above average temperatures looks fairly likely
next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to showcase temperatures
in the upper 80s for typical warm spots across the lowlands.
Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain each
afternoon due to the above normal temperatures, as well as a
few shortwaves that will move through the ridge pattern. A cold
front approaches Thursday and temperatures look to decrease a
few degrees after its passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 131 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will continue through the majority of the TAF
period. However, dense fog is expected to develop in the
sheltered mountain river valleys overnight. This can drop
visibility to IFR conditions from 6-12Z in places like KEKN.
Otherwise, weather should be largely calm through the TAF
period with calm to light winds overnight into Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of fog overnight into Friday
morning may vary from the forecast. Fog may develop in more
terminals than currently expected.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog early Friday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JMC