Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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910 FXUS63 KSGF 110533 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Residual flooding continues after some areas received as much as 5 to 8 inches of rain over the past 2 days. - Near-normal temperatures through Tuesday, with highs between upper 70s to low 80s. - Warmer temperatures return later in the week into next weekend, with temps potentially reaching 90 on Thursday with the heat expected to persist through the weekend, with temps in the 90s and heat index values between 90 and 100. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper level trough from New England into the OH and TN valley, with an upper ridge axis from the central plains into western Ontario. In between, a northwest flow was over the forecast area. This has allowed a cold front at the surface to push south to near the Gulf coast, with a secondary cold front over far southern Missouri. Cooler and drier air with a high pressure system continues to push into the area and most of the CWA has been sunny so far today. In contrast to the weekend which brought widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain and a band of 5 to nearly 8 inches of rain to parts of the CWA. This lead to some fairly widespread flooding of which some is continuing and will linger into the middle of the week. Temperatures were pleasant across the area in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the low to mid 50s. Tonight through Tuesday night: High pressure will be over the area tonight with cooler than normal temperatures generally in the 50s. The surface high will slide to the east on Tuesday with winds becoming more southerly. Temperatures should climb back into the low to mid 80s for most locations with lows Tuesday night in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The main upper level jet will remain well north of the area through the period with a slight dip in the jet late in the week allowing a surface front to push into the area Thursday into Thursday night. Some models are showing some QPF in this time range. Upper level temperatures in the 850-700mb layer would suggest a pretty strong thermal cap in place during this time. We do have low pops(15-20%) in the north for Thursday night, but confidence in precipitation during the 7 day forecast at this time is pretty low. The warm temperatures aloft and increased moisture should lead to warmer than normal temperatures by the end of the week into the weekend with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values from 90 to 100. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Quiet weather and one-liners through the TAF period. Light winds (5kts or below) will gradually shift from northerly to southerly, with clear skies (maybe some high clouds). && .CLIMATE... Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 14: KVIH: 95/1952 June 16: KJLN: 95/2016 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 15: KSGF: 74/2022 June 16: KSGF: 75/2022 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden