243
FXUS63 KSGF 130524
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Heat and humidity will start ramping up on Thursday and
   continue into next week.

-  Low end thunderstorm chances on Thursday night(15-30%) as a
   front sags south into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a zonal flow with the main
northern stream jet located along the Canadian / U.S. border
with some shortwave energy shifting east along southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba along the border of Montana and North
Dakota. A southern stream low was off the southern California
coast with some upper level ridging east of this low over the 4
corners region. Lower in the atmosphere, the surface ridge axis
was southeast of the area with a southerly wind across the
forecast area. This has brought an increase in surface
temperatures and dew points to the area with temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Very little to no cloud cover was visible on the satellite.

For tonight: the upper level storm track will remain well north
of the area, however the shortwave will push into the upper
Mississippi valley and should aid in dropping a cold front a bit
further south into Nebraska and Iowa by morning. We should
remain mostly clear here in the Missouri Ozarks with a southerly
wind continuing. Lows will be warmer tonight than the past
couple of nights with early morning readings in the low 60s in
south central Missouri, to the mid and upper 60s over our
western CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Thursday: Moisture will continue to increase ahead of a
southward dropping cold front as it moves into central MO by the
end of the day. Highs should reach the upper 80s to low 90s
across the area with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Thursday night: Storms will develop north of the area during the
afternoon and evening ahead of the front where 3500-4500 j/kg
CAPES will reside. Some of these storms may survive into our
northern CWA on Thursday night with a marginal risk of severe
storms (cat 1 of 5). Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be
the main risk with any storms that may push into the area.

Friday: Models show a weak boundary that does make it into the
area on Friday with 3000-4500 j/kg CAPES developing over the
area during the day. There will be an impressive thermal cap
over the area so we are not forecasting any widespread
convection, but also can`t rule out some isolated storms with
the boundary in the area. The heat will enter it`s 2nd day with
heat index values from the mid 90s to around 101.

This weekend: Upper ridge axis will be over the area with the
upper wave currently off the southern California coast ejecting
into the plains and eventually Mississippi valley. The bulk of
the energy with this feature will remain north and northwest of
the forecast area and for now we are keeping POPS below the 15%
level. The heat and humidity will persist through the weekend
with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the
mid 90s to around 102.


Monday-Tuesday: An upper trough will develop over the western
U.S. and a surface front should remain to our west in the plains
during this period. We will likely be on the eastern edge over
the better precipitation chances which should keep the heat and
humidity in place through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the
majority of the TAF period. Some high clouds from a remnant
thunderstorm complex will continue to dissipate tonight. Light
SSW`ly winds will modestly increase to 8-13 kts after 14Z before
decreasing again after 02Z. There is a low-end chance that
remnant showers and thunderstorms will make it to SGF and JLN
after 04Z as some models are beginning to depict this scenario.
These are not expected to be severe if they do make it to the
TAF sites. Likely mode would be scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 16:
KSGF: 97/1952
KJLN: 95/2016


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 15:
KSGF: 74/2022

June 16:
KSGF: 75/2022

June 17:
KSGF: 76/2016

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Price