Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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905 FXUS63 KSGF 062003 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 303 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances for rainfall this weekend with localized flooding possible. The greatest potential for widespread precipitation will be Saturday night-Sunday morning (60-75%). - Marginal Risk for severe weather for Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Severe weather is highly dependent on when the front moves through overnight. - A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Shortwave trough moved through the area this morning bringing a round of showers in from the KC area and keeping most of the area in the low to mid 70s. Though, looking at our SGF 12z sounding from this morning, we were pretty dry at the surface. However, looking at PWAT values on the SPC mesoanalysis page, the shortwave is supplying its own moisture as is pushes southeast. This means these showers moving through southern MO will continue to push south and should be out of the area between 2-4pm. Friday appears to be mostly dry with increasing clouds throughout the day as a pattern shift comes underway for the weekend. Enjoy tomorrow, because an unsettled, wet weekend is in store for southern MO. Tomorrow will start out mostly sunny with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Overcast skies return Friday night, keeping lows warm in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Synoptic Set-up: The long term forecast will continue to feature intermittent rain chances through weekend. WPC has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall through the weekend for most of the SGF CWA. Though, long term model guidance isn`t in great agreement on how the synoptic pattern will unfold this weekend. There will be a stationary front that sets up somewhere over southern MO along/near I-44. Some solutions have the stalled front hanging out over southern MO, others show the front near the MO/AR border, or even further south than that. This is why there`s been such a spread in QPF amounts the past several days, and our forecast QPF values have flipped back and forth. Highs will be a bit cooler than normal in the mid 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the weekend and start of next week. Temperatures bounce back into the mid 80s by Wednesday. Could see some additional precip chances toward the middle of next week. Saturday: MCS will move through Friday night into Saturday morning bringing the first round of rain for the weekend. QPF have most of the rain falling over central MO with amounts around 1 inch or less. Skies will stay mostly cloudy for the day with rain tapering off in the morning, a break in the afternoon, then rain again in the evening hours through the night. Saturday Night-Sunday: Yet another MCS will move through the area Saturday night through Sunday morning. Then, following right behind the MCS, a cold front will push through as well. SPC has a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms over the area when the cold front pushes through overnight. Since moderate low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be in place, storms may be strong enough to produce large hail, a tornado, or damaging wind gusts. Though, the severe threat is highly dependent on when the front moves through. SPC also said that a category update may be needed as details are more clear. Rain will taper off through the day once the cold front moves through the area. Rainfall Amounts: Just looking at ensemble plumes, we can see that the spread even for just 48 to 72 hours out is almost an inch of QPF. The uncertainty on where the boundary sets up is why the spread in expected rainfall is so high. Though, considering how saturated we are due to previous rainfall events, nuisance flooding can be expected for anywhere rain does fall. PWAT values max out over southern MO near 2 inches. Again, referencing climatology for this time of year, 2 inches for PWATs is well above our daily max of 1.7 to 1.8 inches. Therefore, any back-building near the front will lead to localized flooding in those areas. Right now, have highest QPF totals for the weekend over south-central MO mostly along I-44 (1.75 to 3.5 inches), with lower amounts just north and south of I-44 (1.0 to 1.5 inches). As mentioned before, with the uncertainty in the models, these amounts are subject to change (and already have from last night`s forecast to today`s forecast) as we get closer to the weekend. If attending outdoor events/activities this weekend, keep in mind that you could see intermittent rain showers, where rain may be heavy at times. Nuisance flooding and ponding on the roadways is expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Scattered showers are currently occuring from south-central Missouri to eastern Kansas, and will move across the area during the next few hours. Isolated lightning strikes are possible in Springfield as the storms in eastern Kansas move southeast, but probabilities are too low to include in TAFS. VFR conditions are expected to persist otherwise. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Soria