Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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643 FXUS63 KSGF 060827 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 327 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some thunder possible today. - Pattern change for the weekend expected with potential for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is the greatest potential threat, but severe weather will also be possible. Confidence in specific details is quite low at this time. - A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Majority of short term guidance is showing a narrow band of showers moving through the area today, with potential for some embedded thunder. This is in response to weak shortwave energy moving down through the NW flow aloft. Have increased the PoPs and cloud cover associated with this, which also results in cooler temperatures. These effects are most notable over the western and central CWA. For example, highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s to around 80 over Springfield and northwest, but in the upper 80s to around 90 over the far southeastern CWA. For tonight, look for lows in the 50s under clear skies. Friday will see highs in the mid 80s with increasing high cloud filtering into the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Main attention this forecast period is on convective potential Friday night into Sunday as models show rounds of heavy rainfall with MCS activity. This is being driven by NW flow aloft and a stalled surface front over the region. Overall confidence in details this weekend is low given the nature of MCS activity and the inherent difficulty in predicting details until a few hours ahead of time. In general, we can see there is potential for the activity and right now it favors the northern and northeastern CWA Friday night into Saturday and much of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday, but of course MCSs can take pretty dramatic turns based on mesoscale features that are not predictable at this time range. Agree with the SPC marginal severe risk associated with this convection and also with WPC marginal to slight ERO outlooks given potential for repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Exact rainfall amounts, and resulting flood potential and river forecasts, will remain uncertain and quite variable until much closer to the time of the event. Cloud cover and temperatures will be highly dependent on the convective activity, so confidence in those details is also low. Stay tuned to the forecast and be prepared to adjust plans. We could see some additional precip Sunday night into Monday, but confidence is even lower with that. Cooler conditions are expected for Monday with highs in the 70s, but will bounce back into the mid 80s by Wednesday. Could see some additional precip chances toward the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 There is a 30-40% chance of showers and perhaps some thunder today, mainly at KSGF. The chances are less than 20% at KBBG and less than 10% at KJLN, so left any precip out of the forecast at this time. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions through the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus