194
FXUS64 KSHV 220603
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
103 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

As of 9:45 PM CDT this evening, temperatures are approaching the
upper 70s under mostly clear skies and robust southeasterly winds
at 10 mph. Winds will gradually slacken below 10 mph overnight
with temperature minimums falling accordingly into the mid-70s.
With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated,
forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Quiet conditions across the region today, with mostly cloudy
skies. Despite the clouds, temps are still running well above
normal, with most areas seeing upper 80s to around 90 degrees at
this hour. The center of the upper level ridge in place this
morning has started to shift south of the region. This has allowed
for southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the area. A weak
short-wave along the flow has already kicked off some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the west and northwest of the region.
Progs haven`t handled this very well, but the 06z ECMWF kinda
shows some indication of this. The storms haven`t been severe, but
some have been strong enough for our surrounding offices to issue
SPS`s. Expect some of this convection to eventually move into our
NW zones later this afternoon before diminishing. The best chance
for this occurring will be across areas along and north of I-30
corridor. SPC has continued to highlight a Slight Risk for severe
storms in the aforementioned area. This is mostly due to some
additional convection developing this evening along a front moving
across Oklahoma. This convection could move into our Slight Risk
zones before diminishing again late this evening. Hail and
damaging winds will be our primary threat.

The front will likely stall just to the NW of the region tonight, but
additional convection is expected to develop along it as early as
Wednesday morning. Although the front should remain NW of the
area, the convection is likely to make it into the region
throughout the day on Wednesday. uncertainty remains on how far
south the convection will make it into the region, but we are
pretty confident areas along and north of I-30 will see the brunt
of the storms. SPC has highlighted this with an Enhanced risk for
severe weather. It does appear that large large hail and damaging
winds are the greatest risk, but can`t rule out tornadoes. If
these storms train, flash flooding could also become a risk. The
convection should start to diminish in coverage by Wednesday
evening, but with residual boundaries left over from convection,
decided to keep pops in place along and north of I-20 through
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The frontal boundary will retreat more north of the region on
Thursday, but POPs remain in the forecast. Most of this convective
development will be tied to residual boundaries in place from the
previous day convection and additional weak disturbances moving
along the flow aloft. Plenty of instability will remain in place,
so more damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. With
another day of convection across the area, excessive rainfall will
also become more of an issue.

By Friday and through the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend,
slight chance to low end chance POPs will remain in the forecast.
Most of this convection will generally be along and north of the
I-20 corridor and will be during peak heating hours. Besides the
rain, the other hazard that could be of concern is the heat.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid 90s, especially
along and south of the I-20 corridor. With low to mid 70 degree
dewpoints in place, heat indices could climb between 100-105
degrees, which is just below Heat Advisory criteria.

Still expecting a pattern shift early next week as upper ridging
appears to becomes dominate across the Intermountain West, with
troughing developing across the Midwest. This should result in a
front moving through the area, followed by a shift to NW Flow and
a cooler pattern for our region. Expect more widespread precip
chances with the frontal passage. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Low clouds and MVFR ceilings will continue to spread across the
region affecting all TAF sites early in the period. A very slow
improvement is expected after sunrise, but VFR flight conditions
should return to most sites by 22/19z except across Southeast
Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas and portions of Northeast Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also begin to develop by
22/19z along and north of Interstate 30 before increasing in
coverage and intensity while gradually spreading east and
southeast. All TAF sites are expected to be affected by strong to
severe convection before the end of the period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  91  75  95 /  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  90  73  93 /  20  10  10   0
DEQ  66  84  67  88 /  70  50  50  10
TXK  70  88  72  92 /  60  30  40  10
ELD  68  88  69  92 /  40  20  30  10
TYR  72  89  74  92 /  30  20  10  10
GGG  72  90  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  74  92  74  94 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...09