005
FXUS64 KSHV 081911
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
211 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Warm and quiet weather will continue to dominate the short-term,
with upper-level ridging remaining firmly in place over Texas.
Afternoon highs tomorrow will again range in the low to mid-90s,
with lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low to mid-70s.
However, by tomorrow night, the pattern will finally begin to
break down, as a deep trough begins to move through the midwest
and NE. It may take a few days for us to really feel the effects
of this trough, but in the short-term, rain chances will begin to
increase in our north zones into Monday morning. The bulk of this
trough action will take place towards the middle of the week,
which is where I will start with the long-term discussion

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Welcome! I`m glad you could join me. So, I have some good news,
and some bad news. The good news is; even though there`s weather
in the long-term, it`s still a far cry from what we`ve seen the
last two weeks. The bad news is; there is still some uncertainty
regarding a Wednesday system, with some guidance indicating
another round of potentially 1-3 inches of rainfall. This is an
outlier for sure, but given how much rain we`ve had so far this
year, it would be a disservice not to at least mention it. Now,
let`s take a look at all this in a little greater detail.

By Wednesday, that trough will be moving through the NE, with
another low/ridge combo setting up off the west coast. Given the
flow pattern aloft at both ends of the coast, our region will
return to pseudo NW flow aloft during this timeframe. Also during
this timeframe, a disturbance looks to move off the Rocky
Mountains and into the S. Plains, where it will ride this flow
pattern SE. It`s at this point that the long-range guidance
scatters. Some guidance has the disturbance remaining to our west,
where others pull it through our region at rocket speed. The
outliers have the disturbance moving into the region, and closing
off from the main flow aloft, before finally getting pushed out
into Friday. With much more certainty, shower and thunderstorm
chances will return to the forecast during this timeframe, with
much more uncertainty regarding QPF amounts and coverage.
Thankfully, even if we do end up with the far wetter solutions,
this scenario seems to resemble 1-3 inches of rain, as opposed to
3-6 inches. The other good thing is, beyond Thursday, we appear to
be setting up for extended period of dry weather, with upper-level
ridging moving back into the region.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

There are some isolated pockets of patchy MVFR cu ceilings south
of SHV at midday as low level moisture tries to work back in from
the Gulf. However, most areas (including all TAF sites) are
currently VFR with only a few cu with bases of 2.5 to 4.0 kft.
Expect a bit more cu as the afternoon progresses, although bases
will likely be lifting by ~1 kft during this time period. Surface
winds are from the south through southwest at 8 to 15 mph with
occasional gusts to or just over 20 mph. Winds will be very light
from the south tonight with a better late night moisture surge
trying to bring back in some lower stratus into at least southern
and southwestern zones around or shortly after daybreak. This low
stuff (likely MVFR at at least TYR and LFK) will likely mix out to
a greater and more widespread cu field by midday tomorrow in
central and western zones. Some minor and temporary MVFR vis
reductions around or shortly after daybreak tomorrow are also
possible at TYR and LFK. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions
to continue in the Four State region through the next 24 hours
with winds tomorrow again from the south to southwest with speeds
by midday tomorrow ranging from 6 to 12 mph. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  74  90 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  96  71  88 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  71  93  67  84 /   0   0  10  10
TXK  74  94  70  87 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  74  94  68  85 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  72  91  72  88 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  72  92  72  88 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  72  93  73  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...50