Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
936 FXUS64 KSJT 020811 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening... Satellite and radar images indicate the MCS/MCV feature moving eastward across portions of the northwest Hill Country early this morning. Isolated convection across portions of Menard and Concho counties has diminished in the last hour as the outflow boundary from the thunderstorms across the northern Edwards Plateau earlier this evening continues to move northeast across eastern portions of the Concho Valley into the Heartland. May see some isolated showers or thunderstorms develop along the outflow boundary early this morning but storms should remain below severe limits. The latest NAM and GFS model runs prog a weak shortwave trough in the westerly flow aloft moving eastward across west Texas this afternoon into this evening. At the surface...the dryline across west Texas will provide a focus for thunderstorms to develop later today into tonight. SPC has the western counties of our CWA under a slight risk for severe weather today and tonight with a marginal risk across the rest of the CWA except across portions of the northwest Hill Country. The main severe weather hazards expected with severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are large hail and damaging winds...mainly across the western portions of the CWA. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Heartland to the lower to mid 90s across the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of the CWA tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A few models are hinting at the possibility of convection in our area Monday evening. The dry line is expected to push east into our western counties by the late afternoon and early evening. Dewpoints ahead of the dry line could be in the low to mid 70s, although there is a bit of disagreement on this in the high res models, with some models showing dewpoints in the mid 70s and some in the low 60s. This will have a significant impact on potential development. If the dewpoints do in fact remain high and an upper level disturbance moves through in the evening, like some models are showing, we could see thunderstorms. With the extensive CAPE values and mid level lapse rates that could be in place, there will be the potential for severe storms. This is all conditional on the dew points and location of the disturbance however. Some good news and bad news for the rest of the long term. The good news is that the chance for severe weather will be lower this next week. The bad news is that temperatures are expected to go back into the upper 90s and 100s for much of next week. A large upper level ridge will start to build over the western half of the United States on Tuesday, leading to above normal temperatures for much of the long term. Heat index values could exceed 105 degrees in some areas for Tuesday through Thursday, leading to an increased risk of heat impacts. Precipitation chances will start to increase on Friday as an upper low develops off to our west, breaking down the ridge slightly and sending some upper level disturbances through the flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Satellite images indicate the MCS feature across the northern Edwards Plateau is providing mostly high level clouds across the southern and western portions of the CWA late tonight. Ceilings were near 3000ft at KBBD. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions to prevail across west central Texas the rest of tonight into early Sunday morning as low level moisture across the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country allows low level clouds to develop. With the MCV moving eastward across the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country the rest of tonight...isolated convection may develop across portions of the CWA early Sun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 90 72 94 71 / 30 30 10 10 San Angelo 94 73 100 74 / 20 20 10 10 Junction 95 75 99 74 / 10 10 10 10 Brownwood 89 72 91 69 / 20 30 10 20 Sweetwater 91 72 97 72 / 40 20 10 10 Ozona 89 73 96 73 / 10 10 10 0 Brady 89 72 92 71 / 30 30 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...61