Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
605 FXUS66 KSTO 052022 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 122 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot weather will continue again tomorrow with some improvement in central parts of the valley. Further cooling Friday into weekend. Triple digit heat returns again to north SacValley early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Saturday)... Forecast on track for hottest day of the week to be today. Things also still on track for continued hot with major heat risk values tomorrow. On short flow will provide some relief to delta/central valley locations this evening and also keep temperatures from getting to values as high as today. Only a bit of reprieve in Northern Sacramento Valley Thursday. Friday and Saturday...upper level ridge of high pressure continue to push to the east and decrease in intensity as we become more under the influence of a area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska with associated trough to the south off shore of California. This will increase westerly flow and lower over heights to continue with cooling trend...but still above normal for this time of the year. To view the latest HeatRisk, please visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/ To view current water temperatures, please visit www.cnrfc.noaa.gov && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... Ensemble cluster showing pretty good agreement that overall not a super impactful pattern should be in place for the extended. Most agreed upon pattern not too much different from outliers, that being some ridging over Pacific Northwest/Montana with weak troughing to our south. Northern Sacramento Valley will likely be in a weak northerly flow at the surface which will lead to some good warning there and latest HeatRisk values supporting major levels once again. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index not too excited for this so confidence not super high right now. Will see what trends do but wouldn`t be surprised if things come down a little or at least level out. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail over interior NorCal through the forecast period. Light to breezy north to west winds through this afternoon, shift to a south to west direction this evening, becoming generally light overnight into Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts in the Delta and vicinity 21z through 06z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County- Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$