Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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681
FXUS66 KSTO 232154
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
254 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will continue to bring unsettled weather
and cool conditions across NorCal this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak shortwave will rotate across the area this afternoon/evening
with latest hires guidance continuing to indicate showers across
mainly higher elevations. Cannot rule out a shower or two in the
Valley but would be highly scattered. Modest instability will be
present as shortwave moves across the area, so isolated
thunderstorms are possible as well. Accumulations will generally
be light although locally heavier amounts possible in any
thunderstorm. Similar story for Tuesday as trough remains over the
area. Showers and isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain with
perhaps a few in the Valley. With plenty of cloud cover and trough
in the area, temperatures will remain below normal. Snow levels
will be above pass levels for the most part with accumulations
limited to highest peaks.

System slowly begins to shift east for Wednesday and Thursday. A
few showers may linger, mainly across the Sierra. Temperatures
will gradually warm to near normal by Thursday.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
On Friday, Northern California will be on the relatively dry
backside of the upper level trough. The northernly flow should
bring dry conditions to nearly everyone although there could be
enough instability in the Sierra to set off some afternoon
thunderstorms. For both Friday and Saturday, winds could become a
bit breezy at times while temperatures should be right around
normal for this time of year. Beyond this, both the GFS and ECMWF
have a weak shortwave dropping down the backside of the trough
which may trigger more mountain thunderstorms Sunday and into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with relatively
light winds. The upper level trough continues to linger over
Northern California and will result in FEW/SCT 5-8 kft cumulus in
the valley in addition to a higher (20 kft) SCT to BKN deck. Most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity today/tonight should
remain in the higher elevations although there is a slight chance
isolated areas in the valley could see some activity. Since
confidence is low, have left it out of the TAF for now. Wilson

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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