Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 291106
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
406 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm and fairly dry weather will continue early this week. Weak
systems may bring a few intermittent showers to the mountains
today into Wednesday. Another chance of precipitation possible
next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Weak ridging over most of NorCal will nudge temperatures up again
today. Daytime highs will be about 10-20 degrees above normal with
valley highs in the low to mid 80s and mountain/foothill highs in the
60s/70s. Some records could be tied or broken today:

City Forecast High Record High

Redding AP8585 (2002)
Red Bluff AP8586 (2002)
Downtown Sac8486 (2002)
Sac Exec AP8383 (2002)
Stockton AP8483 (2004)
Modesto AP8485 (2004)

Besides the very warm daytime highs, there is still a slight
chance of afternoon mountain showers over the Sierra Crest today
(south of Tahoe). A weak wave will move across Central CA this
afternoon and should add some instability over the crest, but
moisture may be limited with precipitable water (PW) values about
a third of an inch or less.

On Monday temperatures will remain well above normal as ridging persists.
In fact, additional records could be tied or broken for Sacramento
Exec. Airport, Stockton and Modesto Airports. However, for the
northern part of our CWA, there will be slight cooling as a trough
approaches the Pacific NW by late afternoon.

By Tuesday that weak trough will pass by to the north and may bring
a few showers over the far north end of the valley and mountain
areas north of I-80. Areas to the south will remain dry but much
cooler by 5 to 15 degrees with the greatest cooling occurring in
the mountains. Daytime highs will be much closer to seasonal norms
on Wednesday with an additional cooling of a few more degrees
as that trough continues to track eastward. JBB

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

High pressure will return Thursday into Friday and could result
in another period of breezy northerly winds. Longer range models
are hinting at a potentially stronger and colder system moving
through Northern California next weekend. There is still plenty of
model uncertainty with regards to timing and intensity of that
system, but we`ll pay close attention to model trends.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mostly northerly
winds below 10 kts.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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