746
FXUS62 KTAE 012008
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION,
MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A broad upper trough will cross the Southeast States on Sunday,
bringing a high coverage of pop-up afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will build in over the course of
Monday and Tuesday, diminishing the convective coverage to
isolated for Tuesday and Wednesday. The tail end of a cold front
will brush by on Thursday night and Friday, with an increase to
scattered coverage. A drier air mass and elimination of thunder
chances will follow next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A weaker mid and upper level shortwave trough looks to pass through
the deep south on Sunday, which will provide the main focus for
shower and thunderstorm development across the region. Overall the
highest rain chances are around 50-70% across the Tri-state area
with deep tropical moisture remaining in place. Thunderstorm
development looks to be a more traditional June summer convective
day, with storm initiation expected later in the afternoon and
evening as the day heats up. PWATs will generally be in the 1.6-1.8
inch range, which is enough to produce extremely efficient rainfall
rates across the region. Given these values, there will be a threat
for localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that become quasi-
stationary over the same areas for extended periods of time. Along
with the threat for localized flash flooding, a few storms could
produce strong gusty winds with more vigorous downbursts that
develop. This will partially be aided by DCAPE values in the 800-
1000 J/Kg range tomorrow. Thunderstorms should quickly diminish
within 1-2 hours of sunset Sunday evening.

Look for low temperatures in the morning look to generally fall into
the upper 60s areawide. High temperatures look to climb into the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The broad upper trough that will move across the Southeast States
on Sunday will start to exit off to the east on Sunday night. Weak
upper ridging will build in from the west on Monday and Monday
night. Our 500 mb flow will transition from cyclonic to anti-
cyclonic, and weak surface high pressure will develop and drop
anchor over the northeast Gulf. Against this backdrop, modest
mid- level drying will reduce convective coverage on Monday,
compared with Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A drier pattern with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will
prevail. The upper pattern will amplify, with a strong upper high
developing over the Southern U.S. Rockies and Southern High
Plains, resulting in downstream NW flow aloft across the Tri-State
area. Meanwhile, a bubble of weak surface high pressure will
persist over the northeast Gulf into Thursday. Surface dewpoints
will mainly be in the 60s, except low 70s at the coast. The drier
mid-level air mass will amount to Precipitable Water (PW) values
bouncing around in the marginal 1.4 to 1.6 inch range.

From late Thursday through Saturday, the northwest flow aloft will
try to push a cold front into the Southeast States. It looks like
the tail end of the front could brush by the forecast area. The
forecast acknowledges this with a modest increase to scattered
coverage of thunderstorms. Ensemble means only increase PW values
a little in advance of the front, so scattered coverage should do
it for now.

After the front brushes by, a drier air mass should arrive.
Surface dewpoints should more squarely fall into the 60s, with 50s
possible over AL/GA. Though ensemble plumes show a large range of
possible PW values next weekend, the ensemble mean dries into the
1.0 to 1.2 inch range. This would lead to convective shutdown next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Moderate showers with occasional rumbles of thunder recently
ended at DHN and ECP. ABY and TLH look to remain dry enough that
only vicinity showers on the eastern edge of the precipitation
shield will impact those two terminals. VLD looks to remain dry
through the period. Both ABY and TLH look to remain VFR through
the period, with showers and thunderstorms likely developing at
all terminals tomorrow afternoon. With low confidence at this
time, it is too soon to include in the TAF lines. The MVFR to LIFR
conditions at ECP should similarly diminish in the next couple of
hours as heavy to moderate rain comes to an end. VFR conditions
will remain through the TAF period for ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Earlier today, Buoy 42036 observed 7-foot wave heights with a
southeasterly wave direction. The buoy is down to observing 5-foot
wave heights, but those higher waves will take into this evening
to traverse the northeast Gulf waters. In general, winds and seas
will be on a decreasing trend from now through Sunday afternoon,
but there will take until Monday for the churned-up Gulf waters
to fully respond to the improving weather.

From CWF synopsis...Through Sunday morning, strong surface high
pressure east of the Carolinas will support moderate to fresh
southeast breezes. By Sunday afternoon, a small bubble of high
pressure will develop over the northeast Gulf and persist through
Thursday morning, supporting only light and gentle breezes. The
small high pressure center will move south of the waters on
Thursday, and a weak cold front will enter northern Mississippi
and Alabama. So look for a freshening westerly breeze on Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Dispersions look to lower across the region the next couple of days,
with fair to good afternoon values forecast. This is partially
due to slightly lower mixing heights expected both Sunday and
Monday. Transport winds look to remain predominantly southerly to
southeasterly becoming southwesterly by Monday evening. Overall
there are no fire weather concerns the next couple of days;
however, there is a 60-80 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the region on Sunday. These chances look to
lower on Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging settles into
the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Looking ahead to Sunday, a more typical summerlike scattering of
afternoon thunderstorms is expected, yielding large areas with no
rain, dotted with pockets that get a quick few inches of rain.
These small pockets of heavy rain will be vulnerable to short-
duration runoff issues, especially in urban areas and poor
drainage areas. However, this kind of rainfall pattern will not
lead to river flooding.

Beyond Sunday, the chances for heavy rainfall greatly diminish, so
no new flooding is expected into next weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  86  68  91 /  20  70  20  40
Panama City   70  86  72  87 /  40  40  20  20
Dothan        67  86  68  88 /  50  60  20  20
Albany        68  86  67  89 /  20  70  30  30
Valdosta      70  87  67  90 /  10  60  30  40
Cross City    68  89  67  91 /  20  60  20  40
Apalachicola  74  83  73  85 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ750-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Haner