501
FXUS62 KTAE 311506
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1106 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Forecast updates are not needed this morning, with no change in
expectations through at least tonight.

There will be a huge 12,000-acre burn on the Apalachicola National
Forest today in the Bradley Bay Wilderness of western Wakulla
County. With prevailing east-southeast winds today, expect
downwind smoke and air quality impacts to develop over Liberty and
Calhoun Counties.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Easterly winds are expected to become more southeasterly through
tonight with a weak stationary front draped across the northeastern
portions of the area. Fairly zonal flow is expected aloft with a
tiny bit of ridging possibly suppressing any shower and thunderstorm
development over the eastern Big Bend and GA. A few showers and
storms may be able to develop across the FL Panhandle along the
seabreeze this afternoon. If storms are able to develop, forecast
soundings show an inverted V and DCAPE values around 800-900 J/kg,
which indicate a potential gusty wind threat. Highs this afternoon
are forecast in the upper 80s north of the stationary front to the
mid 90s across Florida. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Saturday`s forecast is kind of a mess, meaning it`s highly
dependent on where outflow boundaries set up. An approaching
shortwave from the lower Mississippi Valley will lift
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by late Saturday
afternoon. Meanwhile, ongoing MCSs off to our west may send
outflow boundaries toward our area or just west. These boundaries
in concert with the approaching shortwave will be the focus for
renewed thunderstorm development. The evolution of the storms on
Saturday is highly uncertain given the placement of these
mesoscale features. Regardless, it appears the better chance for
rain Saturday will be over the Central Time Zone counties,
decreasing farther to the east. Some of the storms Saturday could
be strong to possibly severe with damaging winds being the primary
severe hazard. Instability will be sufficient with about 20-30 kt
deep layer shear (which is sufficient for summer-like severe
setups). Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the
Central Time Zone counties in a Marginal Risk of severe weather
(level 1 of 5) for Saturday. Additionally, PWATs will climb into
the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, providing ample moisture for a
localized flash flood threat in the heavier downpours. Highs will
be cloud- cooled with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s. Lows
will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Another shortwave approaches on Sunday, bringing another day of
good rain chances to the area, especially over western parts of
the forecast area. The environment doesn`t appear as favorable for
strong storms, but sufficient moisture will remain in place for
some efficient rain producers. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

We`ll remain in a pattern of northwesterly flow with some weak
shortwaves passing near our area. With abundant moisture remaining
in place, daily rain chances will remain around 20 to 30% through
the end of the period. With the lower rain chances, highs will
climb back to the lower to middle 90s through the week. A cold
front will approach the area toward the end of the week, which
could help boost rain chances later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

A few showers and storms will be possible along the seabreeze this
afternoon, with the best chances across the FL Panhandle near
KECP. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Easterly winds will become southeasterly this afternoon and
evening. A surge of strong nocturnal east to southeast breezes
will spread across the waters late this evening and overnight.
Seas will respond by building to 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas will
decrease Saturday afternoon then become light by Monday. Showers
and thunderstorms are likely at times late tonight through Sunday
over the northeast Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Rain chances begin to increase today into Saturday as moisture
slowly returns to the area. High dispersions will be possible this
afternoon due to very high mixing heights and slightly breezy
transport winds. A seabreeze is expected to develop near the coast
each afternoon before moving inland.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Some locally downpours are possible in the storms through the
weekend. While widespread totals over the next 3 days generally
will be around 0.5 to 1 inch over the western areas, tapering
farther east, localized totals in the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama could be as much as 2 to 4 inches. If these
higher-end amounts materialize, then some localized nuisance
flooding could occur. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined
parts of southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4). Regardless,
impacts of local rivers should be minimal.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  88  69  87 /  10  20  10  40
Panama City   75  85  72  85 /  20  40  20  40
Dothan        69  85  68  86 /  10  40  20  50
Albany        67  87  67  86 /   0  10  10  40
Valdosta      66  89  67  88 /   0  10  10  30
Cross City    66  91  67  90 /  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  77  84  74  84 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-
     770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Young