Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
858 FXUS62 KTAE 011006 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 606 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A well defined shortwave trough extends southeast through the Mid South towards the northern Gulf coast. East of this feature, shortwave ridging is located across the Florida peninsula north towards the southern Appalachians. These two feature will slowly work eastward today. As the trough moves closer through the day, higher moisture content and PWATs will also move east as the 1.8 to nearly 2 inch PWATs edge out the drier 1.2 PWATs associated with the ridge moves east. Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase in southern Alabama closer to the trough where the higher PWATs are currently located and aided by diffluence aloft and increasing instability. As the morning moves along, expect these bands of convection to move into or develop over our western Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama areas. This is where our highest rain chances are located through the morning into early afternoon hours. Instability will increase this morning in this area and although the deep layer shear is on the weaker side, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are possible and SPC continues the marginal risk for severe weather across our central time zone counties. Further east of this area, curtailed rain chances sharply in line with recent CAMs showing a possible weakening trend and trajectory into the Gulf waters of this line/bands of convection with slight chance towards the I75 corridor. Heavy rain could also be a concern as the morning goes, especially if convective banding sets up and training of storms takes place, especially in coastal sections of Walton and Bay counties. Reference hydro section for specificity of rainfall amounts but generally 1-3 inches is possible with locally higher amounts. Due to the increase clouds and rain coverage, dropped highs several degrees today and in line with MOS guidance west of Albany/Tallahassee line and common highs will be in the low 80s as compared to mid/upper 80s further east where some sun will persist into the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker shortwave passes through the area on Sunday, bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance for showers and storms (50-70%) will be over the western two- thirds of the area with lower chances (30-40%) closer to the Suwannee River and I-75. However, tomorrow`s storm evolution will greatly depend on where the outflow boundaries from today`s storms ultimately set up. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests this could be closer to closer to Apalachee Bay where the higher rain chances end up. Will monitor trends to see how much adjustment is needed to Sunday`s forecast. If storms do get going on Sunday, then there is the potential for some locally heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds. Instability will be sufficient, and we`ll have about 20 kt of deep layer shear, which is enough for summertime convection to become strong. Additionally, PWATs will still be in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, which could result in efficient rain producers Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows near 70. By Monday, we`ll return to a more diurnal pattern with ridging starting to nose its way into our area. Thus, most storms will be along the sea breeze. Highs will climb back in the lower 90s with && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ridging starts to take over the southeast US Tuesday and Wednesday before more troughing returns for late in the week. This ridging will help keep a lid on most storms, and the best rain chances will generally shift to the eastern parts of our area where the Nature Coast sea breeze will collide with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. High temperatures will climb back toward the lower to middle 90s with heat index values of 99 to 105. Lows will also climb into the lower to middle 70s. As troughing develops over the eastern US late in the week, a cold front will approach our area. This will lead to increasing rain chances Thursday into Friday, though temperatures will still remain hot. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Convection continues over south Alabama with a slow eastward progression anticipated through the morning and early afternoon hours. TAFs were kept mostly the same but added VCSH at ECP beginning at 12Z as some SHRA activity has been moving in and out of the aerodrome. Used a variety of CAM guidance for timing of convection into DHN/ECP with a PROB30 remaining at TLH for TSRA this afternoon. Confidence remains on the lower side for TLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The strong southeasterly nocturnal surge from overnight will continue through mid to late morning before subsiding this afternoon. Advisory level winds with gusts of 30 kt are likely this morning before coming down to cautionary or lower this afternoon. Isolated gusts up to 35 kt are possible. Seas will likewise begin to settle from 3 to 5 feet today back to 1 to 3 feet from Sunday onward. Beyond today, winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon hours, especially west of Tallahassee and Albany areas into the southeast Alabama and western Florida panhandle areas. Showers have developed already early this morning across portions of these areas and will continue as a mid level disturbance approaches the region. Low chances for rain exist further east towards the I75 corridor but the probability is low. A mix of sun and clouds is expected through the day outside of rain. Transport winds and dispersions appear favorable today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the far western Florida Panhandle today, possibly extending up into the Wiregrass of southeast Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Central Time Zone counties with the highest amounts near the coast and especially to the west of our forecast area. Some localized totals of 3 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out, especially where we see training bands of thunderstorms. This could result in some localized flash flooding, especially this morning and afternoon. While the better signal is certainly off to our west, we can`t entirely rule out some higher-end rainfall in coastal parts of Walton and Bay Counties. Our Central Time Zone counties are in a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4). Abundant moisture remains in place across the area on Sunday as well, though the signal for training storms is not as defined. But, locally heavy downpours certainly cannot be ruled out, which could cause some nuisance flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for widespread heavy rainfall greatly diminish. Our river systems should remain relatively unscathed by this rainfall as the heaviest will likely fall near the mouth of the Choctawhatchee River. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 70 86 69 / 30 20 60 10 Panama City 82 72 85 72 / 70 30 50 10 Dothan 82 67 85 69 / 70 30 60 10 Albany 86 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 10 Valdosta 88 67 87 68 / 20 20 40 10 Cross City 91 67 89 68 / 20 10 40 10 Apalachicola 83 74 84 73 / 60 30 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750- 752-770-772. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Young