Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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137 FXUS62 KTAE 301711 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 111 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Generally dry and pleasant conditions are expected across the area today with northerly to northeasterly winds in place. A weak cold front is forecast to stall near the northern portions of the area today, which may keep temperatures in the area closer to the mid 80s while the rest of the area rises into the upper 80s to low 90s. Relatively drier air still in place will keep low temperatures overnight in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Warm to hot weather continues as the calendar changes from May to June with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 across Georgia and Alabama and the lower to middle 90s in Florida. There is a chance for a shower or storm along the seabreeze Friday afternoon with slightly better chances for rain for southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s to near 70 both nights. Surface high pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic coupled with a shortwave H5 ridge over the southeast will combine to keep much of the region dry Friday afternoon. That said, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out along the seabreeze. As both entities move into the western Atlantic, it will open the door for slightly better shower and thunderstorm chances across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Rain and storm chances dwindle the more east you go Saturday due to drier air in place and the influence of the surface high. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast each afternoon through the period with the best chances Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be on an upward trend from the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday and Monday to the lower to middle 90s for much of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will experience a similar trend from the upper 60s Sunday night to the lower to middle 70s by the middle of next week. A surface high anchored over Bermuda will provide an easterly to southeasterly breeze much of the period and help to increase moisture levels. Meanwhile, weak H5 troughiness and vorticity perturbations should allow for slightly better shower and thunderstorm cover Sunday afternoon. Precipitable water values (PWATs) of 1.5" to 1.8" means locally heavy rain will be possible within the stronger storms along with some gusty winds. Guidance begins to diverge early next week. There will be ample moisture in place to allow a couple of showers and storms to develop along the seabreeze each afternoon. Just how many and how widespread the coverage of those showers/storms are is in question. Therefore, have elected to keep a 20% chance for showers and storms in the forecast each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Tranquil marine conditions continue through Friday afternoon with light and variable winds and seas generally less than 2 feet. High pressure across the western Atlantic will bring easterly wind surges a couple of nights starting Friday night and could linger into Sunday night. Cautionary conditions are expected for most of the waters with these wind surges, but brief spells of Advisory level winds cannot be entirely ruled out. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Moisture will gradually return to the area over the next several days as northerly winds gradually become easterly to southeasterly. A combination of high mixing heights and breezy transport winds will allow for high dispersions on Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will also return Friday and increase over the weekend. There are no other fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 The Withlacoochee River at Skipper Bridge Road is starting to crest early this morning. It is currently forecast to crest just below Minor Flood stage, or 135 feet, today. Will continue to monitor it in case a Flood Warning is needed there today before it falls later this evening. Flooding is not expected elsewhere, although several points along the Suwannee will remain in Action Stage into early next week. The greatest chances for rain will be along and west of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers this weekend into early next week. Widespread rainfall totals of up to an inch or two may be possible. Elsewhere, widespread rainfall totals are expected to be minimal and confined mainly along the seabreeze. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 93 70 91 / 0 10 10 20 Panama City 71 92 74 87 / 0 10 10 30 Dothan 66 90 69 88 / 0 10 10 30 Albany 64 89 67 88 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 67 90 67 91 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 67 94 67 92 / 0 20 10 10 Apalachicola 73 87 76 84 / 0 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Reese