Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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334 FXUS62 KTAE 051952 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow into Friday as a front moves through the area. Isolated heavy rain and severe weather is possible with this activity. Hot and dry conditions arrives on weekend behind the front, followed by likely wet/unsettled weather next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A fairly robust shortwave is forecast to push eastward across the region late tonight into Thursday. This will cause widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Thursday, with chances increasing from west to east throughout the morning and early afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with the primary hazards being damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Storm motion should be enough to prevent too much rainfall in one area, but flooding may occur if multiple storms train over the same areas. Due to the increased cloud cover and rainfall expected, forecast high temperatures tomorrow are in the mid 80s to low 90s, with lower values roughly over the northwest half of the area. Lows tonight are forecast in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The aforementioned shortwave and attendant frontal boundary slowly work their way eastward Thursday night into Friday with the highest rain chances (i.e., FL Big Bend) shifting in tandem. By Friday afternoon, only isolated convective coverage is expected thanks to the seabreeze along the I-10 to lower I-75 corridors. Widespread low 90s are forecast this period with peak heat indices ranging from mid 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows cool from low 70s Friday morning to mid/upper 60s (away from the coast) heading into Saturday morning. The latter will be attributed to drier post-frontal air advecting from the north. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The main story this weekend will be hot conditions under mostly sunny early-June skies. The drier air in the front`s wake should allow for effective mixing to the surface such that daytime high temperatures rise to the low/mid 90s with isolated locations nearing the century mark! Given upper 50s/low 60s dew points, heat indices won`t be much different from the thermometer on Saturday. Moisture recovery on Sunday yields hotter/muggier weather characterized by widespread inland mid/upper 90s for highs and heat indices a few degrees higher. The forecast high temperature in Tallahassee is 99, which is 1 off the daily record from 1993! Based on the current 30- yr climate normal period (1991-2020), the average first 100-degree day of the year is June 21st. Wet and unsettled weather is becoming increasingly more likely next week with the approach of another front out of the north and an increase in tropical moisture from the south. Global models continue to differ on the front`s forward speed, but agree on large-scale troughing established across the Eastern US. As such, appreciable rain chances are in the forecast through the remainder of the long- term period. Further refinements on PoP distribution are expected as confidence grows. Increased cloud cover and rainfall drops daytime highs down the upper 80s/low 90s while overnight lows rebound to the low 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon at most terminals. Patchy fog and low cigs will be possible overnight, but confidence is too low to include at this point. Another round of showers and storms will begin tomorrow morning before spreading from west to east across the area through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting light south to SE winds with 2-3-ft seas and a dominant period of 4-5 seconds this afternoon. From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms through late week. The greatest potential for maritime convection is Thursday into Friday morning when a front passes through the waters. Light southwest winds at or below 10 knots are forecast before briefly turning northwesterly on Saturday in the front`s wake. The immediate nearshore waters see a onshore wind shift each afternoon with the seabreeze. Rain chances return next week ahead of another front sagging from the north. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 High coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with the arrival of a front. Widespread wetting rains are likely, in addition to gusty winds and frequent lightning. Isolated severe gusts are possible. Some additional convection aims to develop along the seabreeze and/or in close proximity to the passing front. Mostly dry, but hot weather arrives this weekend. Post-frontal northwest to west winds develop though the afternoon seabreeze induces a southwesterly component closer to the coast. Very high dispersions are forecast areawide Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Locally heavy rainfall could materialize Thursday into Friday with the passage of a front proving a focus for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temporarily dry conditions are expected this weekend before a wet pattern likely arrives next week. Flooding concerns may be on tap for us by then. In terms of rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue on a downward trend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 88 73 95 / 0 60 40 40 Panama City 77 85 75 90 / 20 60 30 20 Dothan 73 86 70 92 / 20 70 20 10 Albany 72 88 70 93 / 10 70 20 20 Valdosta 71 90 72 93 / 10 60 40 30 Cross City 71 90 73 93 / 10 20 50 40 Apalachicola 77 85 76 89 / 10 50 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IG3 NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3