Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
077 FXUS62 KTBW 310832 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 432 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Just another morning in paradise with temperatures near 70 degrees area-wide. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary associated a system pushing off the coast northeastern coast should finally exit the area later today. Before it does, it could support periods of showers and storms thins afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Unfortunately, most of the area will likely stay dry as moisture will be limited and mostly available along/south of the I-4 corridor. Afternoon temperatures today should be similar to yesterday in the mid to upper 90s, but areas that receive rain will get some relief from the heat. Though conditions should be dry enough to keep any advisories from being needed, residents/visitors should stay hydrated and take breaks if outdoors. In addition, east to southeasterly winds prevail and become breezy during the evening. As this system exits the area, the high pressure begins to build along the East Coast keeping very hot and dry conditions in place through the weekend. && .LONG TERM (SUN-THU)... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Going into early next week, the aforementioned ridge stays in place before an upper level disturbance weakens it by mid-week. This allows winds to shift from the south and moisture to return to the area. Also, this could increase rain chances and potentially bring afternoon highs down a few degrees. This is our hope anyways.. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of the period with east to southeasterly winds prevailing. Chances for showers and storms increase during the afternoon, as the sea breeze attempts to move inland. There is uncertainty on whether or not storms will make it to LAL, but VCTS was left in the forecast to show the potential. Breezy winds also increase in the afternoon before shifting from the east into the evening and diminish overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard will tighten pressure gradient bringing breezy easterly winds between 15 to 20 knots through the weekend. Small craft should exercise caution during this time. Boating conditions should improve early next week as high pressure weakens and a disturbance approaches the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building over the area should keep hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions in place through the period. Minimum humidities are expected to be near or at critical values through the weekend and into early next week. East to southeasterly winds prevail with the occasional gusts between 15 to 20 mph this afternoon and Saturday. The sea breeze and potential for showers and storms this afternoon should keep the humidities from lining up with the breezy times, so only elevated conditions are anticipated at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 96 74 94 73 / 30 20 10 10 FMY 96 73 94 73 / 40 20 30 20 GIF 95 71 91 69 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 98 72 97 72 / 40 30 20 20 BKV 97 67 95 65 / 20 10 10 10 SPG 96 77 94 77 / 30 30 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...RDavis