298
FXUS62 KTBW 091802
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
202 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.AVIATION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Westerly flow continues into this evening, then winds become light
and variable overnight. A few afternoon storms are expected to
develop south and inland over the next couple of hours, but the
flow may push clouds inland of the terminals before they develop.
Winds increase again from the SW after 15Z, with some morning
showers possible south. VFR conditions will prevail, but MVFR to
IFR will be possible in showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Have made some adjustments to the PoPs over the next few hours to
better represent the current showers and expected afternoon storm
development. Highs again reaching the mid to upper 90s across the
area with Heat Indices in the 100-105 range. May have a few
pockets across the southern interior that reach around 108, but
with the convection expected across that region, do not expect
that to be widespread. Current forecast is otherwise on track for
today and have no other changes planned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Westerly flow through Monday, with a few overnight and morning
showers and possibly a storm mainly over the southern waters.
Then deep tropical moisture moves over the state and will allow
for widespread periods of rain and some embedded storms for
Tuesday through the end of the week. Current forecast is on track
with no headlines expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  92  79  89 /  20  60  60  80
FMY  79  91  78  88 /  40  80  70  80
GIF  78  95  77  91 /  10  70  50  70
SRQ  81  92  78  89 /  30  70  70  80
BKV  73  95  72  91 /   0  40  50  70
SPG  82  91  82  88 /  20  60  70  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce